{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb222325-f24f-4447-a12f-cac54769ed66", "symbol": "9406", "name": "Albilad Capital - Msci US Equity ETF", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.156, "architecture_energy": 30.153, "architecture_maturity": 63.347, "architecture_confidence": 94.304, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.16, "rotation_up": 34.2, "upward_expansion": 58.47, "deceleration": 88.24, "rotation_down": 29.39, "downward_expansion": 22.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.894667, 15.973818, 15.728048, 15.329419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.43, "trend_reference": 14.849667, "distance_from_trend": 0.106422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.377244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327436, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.587226, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.149755, "excess_performance": 0.198031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058749, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.175872, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079467, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149755, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63715, "relative_activity": 2.241501, "balance": 1.330151, "dry_up": 1.350424, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044525, "annualized_volatility": 0.237409, "from_high_reference": -0.023187, "from_low_reference": 0.34232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.849667, "fair_value_reference": 12.377244, "structural_low": 13.13, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035863, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021106, "active": false }, { 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14.995809, 14.676516 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.059999, "volume": 28455, "typical_volume": 22773.7, "trend": 14.375, "fair_value": 12.17641, "relative_strength": 17.668156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.159259, "energy": 66.182665, "activity_lines": [ 16.089333, 15.828909, 15.135666, 14.791419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.41, "volume": 23782, "typical_volume": 23231.25, "trend": 14.476, "fair_value": 12.215705, "relative_strength": 20.652454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.976107, "energy": 64.575505, "activity_lines": [ 16.199333, 15.995454, 15.300428, 14.92271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.98, "volume": 18390, "typical_volume": 23793.35, "trend": 14.555333, "fair_value": 12.251731, "relative_strength": 17.019544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.259216, "energy": 57.047002, "activity_lines": [ 16.116666, 16.044182, 15.411619, 15.019742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.9, "volume": 7962, "typical_volume": 23698.35, "trend": 14.627333, "fair_value": 12.284295, "relative_strength": 16.719109, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.842306, "energy": 49.990111, "activity_lines": [ 16.062, 16.053273, 15.506571, 15.106495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.99, "volume": 14357, "typical_volume": 23735.0, "trend": 14.712, "fair_value": 12.317372, "relative_strength": 15.967874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.236494, "energy": 42.743776, "activity_lines": [ 16.024667, 16.056909, 15.60119, 15.194408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.13, "volume": 67510, "typical_volume": 26186.05, "trend": 14.755333, "fair_value": 12.343782, "relative_strength": 11.463129, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.93019, "energy": 21.330757, "activity_lines": [ 15.712, 15.892182, 15.605381, 15.221376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.43, "volume": 63715, "typical_volume": 28425.15, "trend": 14.849667, "fair_value": 12.377244, "relative_strength": 17.587226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.156195, "energy": 30.15295, "activity_lines": [ 15.894667, 15.973818, 15.728048, 15.329419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }