{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb2ab67c-edcc-4168-b1bc-1ba6644b02d1", "symbol": "603080", "name": "Xinjiang Torch Gas Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.065, "architecture_energy": 49.525, "architecture_maturity": 45.194, "architecture_confidence": 85.224, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.26, "rotation_up": 15.02, "upward_expansion": 6.82, "deceleration": 50.57, "rotation_down": 61.11, "downward_expansion": 77.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.454666, 18.825455, 19.811089, 20.470954 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.879999, "trend_reference": 21.450475, "distance_from_trend": -0.119833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.027188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.321251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209977, "excess_performance": -0.166773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.438062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6884100, "relative_activity": 0.700245, "balance": 0.438062, "dry_up": 0.753561, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08542, "annualized_volatility": 0.298479, "from_high_reference": -0.334473, "from_low_reference": 0.090699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.450475, "fair_value_reference": 17.027188, "structural_low": 17.309999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001676, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.017085, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.116761, "worst_return": -0.106169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065865, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.069518, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.237481, "worst_return": -0.103838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053778, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.12823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20543, "worst_return": 0.036237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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21.731745, "fair_value": 16.960913, "relative_strength": -16.231811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.870472, "energy": 59.817648, "activity_lines": [ 18.669334, 19.284206, 20.221069, 20.877604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.139999, "volume": 6464500, "typical_volume": 10547043.6, "trend": 21.59133, "fair_value": 16.991121, "relative_strength": -14.489412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.764072, "energy": 56.558393, "activity_lines": [ 18.417334, 18.944728, 19.970182, 20.645879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.879999, "volume": 6884100, "typical_volume": 9830988.6, "trend": 21.450475, "fair_value": 17.027188, "relative_strength": -13.321251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.06547, "energy": 49.524902, "activity_lines": [ 18.454666, 18.825455, 19.811089, 20.470954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }