{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb2cdb9b-f7a7-4421-9d06-502cd22f2c1a", "symbol": "600029", "name": "China Southern Airlines Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.613, "architecture_energy": 49.88, "architecture_maturity": 73.761, "architecture_confidence": 88.457, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 7.64, "deceleration": 59.79, "rotation_down": 50.95, "downward_expansion": 80.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.130667, 5.163273, 5.268667, 5.513247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.15, "trend_reference": 5.995, "distance_from_trend": -0.140951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.058333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.852344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.24251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100075, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168523, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.019776, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 377860470, "relative_activity": 0.818599, "balance": 1.019776, "dry_up": 0.858459, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053025, "annualized_volatility": 0.343973, "from_high_reference": -0.391253, "from_low_reference": 0.040404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.995, "fair_value_reference": 6.058333, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.001653, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.014178, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.140741, "worst_return": -0.060855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005382, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272222, "worst_return": -0.093525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044905, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.079271, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.361111, "worst_return": -0.015332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-16.501722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.435424, "energy": 62.190182, "activity_lines": [ 5.088, 5.174182, 5.314857, 5.633011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.25, "volume": 421305502, "typical_volume": 476408752.9, "trend": 6.090333, "fair_value": 6.066474, "relative_strength": -13.157486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.080331, "energy": 54.0278, "activity_lines": [ 5.120667, 5.177455, 5.294048, 5.573914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.15, "volume": 377860470, "typical_volume": 461593908.9, "trend": 5.995, "fair_value": 6.058333, "relative_strength": -16.852344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.613115, "energy": 49.880202, "activity_lines": [ 5.130667, 5.163273, 5.268667, 5.513247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }