{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb30186b-4bbe-4c7e-bf3c-5ae19c0ceed8", "symbol": "LNGA", "name": "WisdomTree Natural Gas 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.123, "architecture_energy": 82.283, "architecture_maturity": 84.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.495, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.63, "rotation_up": 10.4, "upward_expansion": 18.38, "deceleration": 37.51, "rotation_down": 81.38, "downward_expansion": 96.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0105, 0.011531, 0.012375, 0.013387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0097, "trend_reference": 0.015273, "distance_from_trend": -0.364906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.078625, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.87663, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -61.204083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.550926, "excess_performance": -0.721818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.364906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.87663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003576, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.612041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013837, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.550926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89745010, "relative_activity": 0.882406, "balance": 0.612383, "dry_up": 0.841683, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173672, "annualized_volatility": 0.642846, "from_high_reference": -0.784444, "from_low_reference": 0.031915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015273, "fair_value_reference": 0.078625, "structural_low": 0.0094, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.050914, "positive_rate": 0.439024, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.052104, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.516432, "worst_return": -0.680605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.200942, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.246394, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.061697, "worst_return": -0.688908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.394886, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.495822, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.565553, "worst_return": -0.887936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.2097, "energy": 47.940362, "activity_lines": [ 0.012907, 0.013324, 0.013593, 0.014777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0111, "volume": 64658037, "typical_volume": 114666568.4, "trend": 0.016237, "fair_value": 0.085271, "relative_strength": -57.387767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.361216, "energy": 61.246015, "activity_lines": [ 0.012193, 0.012904, 0.013291, 0.01442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0118, "volume": 35557351, "typical_volume": 104043229.85, "trend": 0.015873, "fair_value": 0.083133, "relative_strength": -53.474365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.515875, "energy": 68.15116, "activity_lines": [ 0.011847, 0.012642, 0.013077, 0.014134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0101, "volume": 152452534, "typical_volume": 102589230.0, "trend": 0.0155, "fair_value": 0.081045, "relative_strength": -59.395586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.086708, "energy": 81.198012, "activity_lines": [ 0.011087, 0.0121, 0.012724, 0.013761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0097, "volume": 89745010, "typical_volume": 101704895.7, "trend": 0.015273, "fair_value": 0.078625, "relative_strength": -61.204083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.122566, "energy": 82.283209, "activity_lines": [ 0.0105, 0.011531, 0.012375, 0.013387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }