{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb3184d6-1f02-4404-b959-764d3739517f", "symbol": "HGBS11", "name": "HEDGE Brasil Shopping Fundo de Investimento Imobili\u00e1rio", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.603, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.175, "architecture_energy": 62.475, "architecture_maturity": 10.124, "architecture_confidence": 90.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.63, "rotation_up": 19.97, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 45.52, "rotation_down": 67.02, "downward_expansion": 89.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.003007, 19.089678, 19.369553, 19.550911 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.959999, "trend_reference": 19.680626, "distance_from_trend": -0.036616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.152402, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.54138, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03056, "excess_performance": 0.026489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.7e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0455, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.37256, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 982904, "relative_activity": 0.961875, "balance": 0.37256, "dry_up": 1.072666, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016719, "annualized_volatility": 0.066162, "from_high_reference": -0.084092, "from_low_reference": 0.108385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.680626, "fair_value_reference": 18.152402, "structural_low": 18.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001097, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.020876, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.119001, "worst_return": -0.121389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011411, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.015883, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110022, "worst_return": -0.117736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022693, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000964, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.293729, "worst_return": -0.101118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-8.691377, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.961809, "energy": 68.442153, "activity_lines": [ 19.197248, 19.342493, 19.662573, 19.7302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.158312, "volume": 1332125, "typical_volume": 1043900.0, "trend": 19.710542, "fair_value": 18.119684, "relative_strength": -6.199068, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.30985, "energy": 73.525824, "activity_lines": [ 19.173484, 19.284731, 19.595744, 19.693888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.960088, "volume": 813134, "typical_volume": 1018052.4, "trend": 19.702288, "fair_value": 18.132158, "relative_strength": -7.002307, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.527995, "energy": 72.44102, "activity_lines": [ 19.101039, 19.207688, 19.5144, 19.645471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.97, "volume": 1256303, "typical_volume": 1034736.55, "trend": 19.693398, "fair_value": 18.14302, "relative_strength": -8.680337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.728027, "energy": 68.928765, "activity_lines": [ 19.046646, 19.145129, 19.439729, 19.598227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.959999, "volume": 982904, "typical_volume": 1021862.05, "trend": 19.680626, "fair_value": 18.152402, "relative_strength": -5.54138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.174591, "energy": 62.474928, "activity_lines": [ 19.003007, 19.089678, 19.369553, 19.550911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }