{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb366771-2d23-44c0-88eb-63208e677e2a", "symbol": "SPALI", "name": "Supalai Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.725, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.558, "architecture_energy": 10.228, "architecture_maturity": 17.69, "architecture_confidence": 65.009, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.92, "rotation_up": 29.0, "upward_expansion": 23.44, "deceleration": 32.37, "rotation_down": 24.49, "downward_expansion": 50.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.893333, 15.894545, 15.777067, 15.882003 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.9, "trend_reference": 16.128814, "distance_from_trend": -0.014187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.668034, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014805, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.323954, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082129, "excess_performance": -0.274454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040923, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.639242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11255000, "relative_activity": 0.68231, "balance": 2.639242, "dry_up": 1.23104, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02806, "annualized_volatility": 0.139414, "from_high_reference": -0.125607, "from_low_reference": 0.1319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.128814, "fair_value_reference": 15.668034, "structural_low": 14.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.016892, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.057899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053851, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.022066, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.264249, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110016, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.056403, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.222006, "worst_return": -0.075762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.942463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.8, "volume": 14823300, "typical_volume": 16455860.0, "trend": 16.175808, "fair_value": 15.674916, "relative_strength": -17.841567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.488042, "energy": 15.812873, "activity_lines": [ 15.94, 15.850909, 15.74778, 15.916795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.9, "volume": 22919300, "typical_volume": 16731420.0, "trend": 16.163476, "fair_value": 15.672484, "relative_strength": -16.105357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.348565, "energy": 9.587628, "activity_lines": [ 15.926667, 15.876364, 15.760631, 15.899001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.9, "volume": 11255000, "typical_volume": 16495425.0, "trend": 16.128814, "fair_value": 15.668034, "relative_strength": -15.323954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.557897, "energy": 10.227844, "activity_lines": [ 15.893333, 15.894545, 15.777067, 15.882003 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }