{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb3bfa96-3686-49dd-9d76-38f1d83abe0a", "symbol": "DIB", "name": "Digital Bros S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.35, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.995, "architecture_energy": 52.88, "architecture_maturity": 11.82, "architecture_confidence": 49.932, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.31, "rotation_up": 62.62, "upward_expansion": 58.02, "deceleration": 25.66, "rotation_down": 19.68, "downward_expansion": 18.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.838667, 11.477818, 11.055905, 10.912817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.4, "trend_reference": 11.044333, "distance_from_trend": 0.122748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.11657, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.910271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014308, "excess_performance": -0.1852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045736, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115452, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234108, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188482, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.676902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120380, "relative_activity": 1.375433, "balance": 1.676902, "dry_up": 1.643635, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075993, "annualized_volatility": 0.426008, "from_high_reference": -0.14952, "from_low_reference": 0.340541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.044333, "fair_value_reference": 11.11657, "structural_low": 9.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.06671, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02568, "worst_return": -0.107741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.091502, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034519, "worst_return": -0.217523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.128933, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.206223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.096234, "worst_return": -0.161631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"close": 11.38, "volume": 109613, "typical_volume": 86760.55, "trend": 11.227667, "fair_value": 11.178173, "relative_strength": -17.235077, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.462617, "energy": 11.268089, "activity_lines": [ 11.088, 10.973455, 10.61019, 10.78357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.8, "volume": 97236, "typical_volume": 88759.35, "trend": 11.151, "fair_value": 11.158301, "relative_strength": -19.390349, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.383346, "energy": 10.334618, "activity_lines": [ 11.016, 10.972, 10.64081, 10.755978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.68, "volume": 63707, "typical_volume": 87591.4, "trend": 11.077, "fair_value": 11.138365, "relative_strength": -19.499996, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.637115, "energy": 14.850753, "activity_lines": [ 10.924, 10.937818, 10.66381, 10.725591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.64, "volume": 294091, "typical_volume": 87499.35, "trend": 11.061, "fair_value": 11.129199, "relative_strength": -4.931732, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.622734, "energy": 45.015452, "activity_lines": [ 11.497333, 11.253091, 10.876714, 10.82643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.4, "volume": 120380, "typical_volume": 87521.55, "trend": 11.044333, "fair_value": 11.11657, "relative_strength": -8.910271, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.994557, "energy": 52.879727, "activity_lines": [ 11.838667, 11.477818, 11.055905, 10.912817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }