{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb41aa77-35af-43b0-b7eb-a9cf88a82ed3", "symbol": "002265", "name": "Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.474, "architecture_energy": 33.548, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.843, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.44, "rotation_up": 26.2, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 39.07, "downward_expansion": 66.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.672, 18.422676, 19.502363, 20.462721 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.98, "trend_reference": 21.951031, "distance_from_trend": -0.135348, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.886865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.333117, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.216026, "excess_performance": -0.223426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216026, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597088, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77649637, "relative_activity": 1.334549, "balance": 0.597088, "dry_up": 1.414227, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100844, "annualized_volatility": 0.517612, "from_high_reference": -0.584228, "from_low_reference": 0.195967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.951031, "fair_value_reference": 18.886865, "structural_low": 15.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.005802, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000209, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.622587, "worst_return": -0.170082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02891, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044777, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.176603, "worst_return": -0.217098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022954, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.233591, "worst_return": -0.327329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.291379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 22.437031, "fair_value": 18.832826, "relative_strength": -28.170772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.726541, "energy": 56.816652, "activity_lines": [ 17.816639, 18.288891, 19.798896, 20.866553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.41, "volume": 152627761, "typical_volume": 55630574.35, "trend": 22.212364, "fair_value": 18.855967, "relative_strength": -25.369577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.461146, "energy": 41.64529, "activity_lines": [ 18.389871, 18.369238, 19.664177, 20.671261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.98, "volume": 77649637, "typical_volume": 58184195.2, "trend": 21.951031, "fair_value": 18.886865, "relative_strength": -29.333117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.473523, "energy": 33.547872, "activity_lines": [ 18.672, 18.422676, 19.502363, 20.462721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }