{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb4b4292-b5f3-41f4-a0e0-d88550fdd6a7", "symbol": "KODK", "name": "Eastman Kodak Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.396, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.719, "architecture_energy": 15.025, "architecture_maturity": 21.616, "architecture_confidence": 63.784, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.59, "rotation_up": 30.36, "upward_expansion": 18.04, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 37.24, "downward_expansion": 40.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.802667, 8.764182, 9.443571, 9.485763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.04, "trend_reference": 9.196667, "distance_from_trend": 0.0917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.283526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.597829, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.227058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.303896, "excess_performance": 0.178271, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.597829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.303896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.282632, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6697524, "relative_activity": 1.161848, "balance": 1.282632, "dry_up": 0.755024, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105759, "annualized_volatility": 0.713112, "from_high_reference": -0.324815, "from_low_reference": 1.032389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.196667, "fair_value_reference": 6.283526, "structural_low": 6.4101, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055288, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033844, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.032787, "worst_return": -0.063613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.186259, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.115534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.389344, "worst_return": -0.016827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.102952, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117788, "worst_return": 0.088115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034014, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032558, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.538988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.310705, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.77, "volume": 2355753, "typical_volume": 3148237.0, "trend": 4.328, "fair_value": 6.058718, "relative_strength": 0.714736, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.377258, "energy": 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"direction": -28.945006, "energy": 39.934208, "activity_lines": [ 8.812667, 9.164, 9.949143, 9.628882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.66, "volume": 2682407, "typical_volume": 5873327.65, "trend": 9.140333, "fair_value": 6.212628, "relative_strength": -13.695744, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.796204, "energy": 53.474116, "activity_lines": [ 8.344667, 8.825455, 9.741476, 9.531935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.23, "volume": 4509074, "typical_volume": 5925292.8, "trend": 9.123333, "fair_value": 6.230449, "relative_strength": -6.778505, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.116882, "energy": 50.854376, "activity_lines": [ 8.199333, 8.658727, 9.586476, 9.473204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.4, "volume": 3520465, "typical_volume": 5827737.8, "trend": 9.122, "fair_value": 6.251538, "relative_strength": -5.99888, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.612079, "energy": 45.977337, "activity_lines": [ 8.188667, 8.549455, 9.440333, 9.426538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.04, "volume": 6697524, "typical_volume": 5764544.45, "trend": 9.196667, "fair_value": 6.283526, "relative_strength": 8.227058, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.71909, "energy": 15.025158, "activity_lines": [ 8.802667, 8.764182, 9.443571, 9.485763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }