{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb53a80f-a50d-4d92-87a2-0a8a76332321", "symbol": "GANX", "name": "Gain Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.133, "architecture_energy": 27.733, "architecture_maturity": 40.506, "architecture_confidence": 90.687, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.08, "rotation_up": 20.1, "upward_expansion": 2.21, "deceleration": 49.91, "rotation_down": 47.85, "downward_expansion": 75.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.752667, 1.769818, 1.795143, 1.858968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.921333, "distance_from_trend": -0.052741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.323394, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216663, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.471967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04, "excess_performance": -0.147454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.502187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1685798, "relative_activity": 0.46948, "balance": 1.502187, "dry_up": 0.76472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144446, "annualized_volatility": 0.812555, "from_high_reference": -0.580645, "from_low_reference": 0.255172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.921333, "fair_value_reference": 2.323394, "structural_low": 1.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.005, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.010015, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.288841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.171598, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.080772, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.106481, "worst_return": -0.386364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.303565, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.146009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.751613, "worst_return": 0.044855, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.75, "volume": 2296441, "typical_volume": 3911588.25, "trend": 1.987667, "fair_value": 2.348073, "relative_strength": -24.3763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.546915, "energy": 26.506392, "activity_lines": [ 1.770667, 1.782909, 1.813667, 1.886409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 2190959, "typical_volume": 3798866.45, "trend": 1.937667, "fair_value": 2.334291, "relative_strength": -27.72917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.628797, "energy": 33.212081, "activity_lines": [ 1.736, 1.762727, 1.795952, 1.866559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 1685798, "typical_volume": 3590776.85, "trend": 1.921333, "fair_value": 2.323394, "relative_strength": -25.471967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.1331, "energy": 27.732663, "activity_lines": [ 1.752667, 1.769818, 1.795143, 1.858968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }