{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb569e8f-cec2-45b8-8ed9-46bbb65e2928", "symbol": "002457", "name": "Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.006, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.043, "architecture_energy": 44.913, "architecture_maturity": 67.567, "architecture_confidence": 62.239, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.13, "rotation_up": 13.52, "upward_expansion": 8.41, "deceleration": 52.88, "rotation_down": 68.59, "downward_expansion": 74.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.719333, 11.550909, 11.83462, 11.862683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.83, "trend_reference": 11.90849, "distance_from_trend": -0.090565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.345975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.924475, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.12428, "excess_performance": -0.13168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101379, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12428, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.273571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135023554, "relative_activity": 1.19863, "balance": 2.273571, "dry_up": 1.285902, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.820234, "from_high_reference": -0.343636, "from_low_reference": 0.154584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.90849, "fair_value_reference": 10.345975, "structural_low": 9.38, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.02228, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.019995, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.43574, "worst_return": -0.228277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.083788, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.089764, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.603427, "worst_return": -0.278706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080316, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.040095, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.471236, "worst_return": -0.134457, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.959842, "fair_value": 10.302809, "relative_strength": 20.845769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.387148, "energy": 69.029469, "activity_lines": [ 13.724667, 13.189847, 12.478365, 12.292472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.25, "volume": 194143176, "typical_volume": 108426422.9, "trend": 11.948402, "fair_value": 10.313458, "relative_strength": -12.98723, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.418914, "energy": 11.499679, "activity_lines": [ 12.684667, 12.725047, 12.288996, 12.18216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.58, "volume": 130035160, "typical_volume": 109692223.75, "trend": 11.91496, "fair_value": 10.319076, "relative_strength": -18.428644, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.895611, "energy": 14.556094, "activity_lines": [ 11.601333, 12.160884, 12.056469, 12.029359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.41, "volume": 120216180, "typical_volume": 109789702.55, "trend": 11.908523, "fair_value": 10.331118, "relative_strength": -9.444092, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.916848, "energy": 27.961559, "activity_lines": [ 11.028667, 11.791636, 11.921451, 11.932265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.83, "volume": 135023554, "typical_volume": 112648217.75, "trend": 11.90849, "fair_value": 10.345975, "relative_strength": -9.924475, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.04312, "energy": 44.912781, "activity_lines": [ 10.719333, 11.550909, 11.83462, 11.862683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }