{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb574003-7cf1-47d8-8959-a125b59472dd", "symbol": "600310", "name": "Guangxi Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.33, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.5, "architecture_energy": 11.263, "architecture_maturity": 31.908, "architecture_confidence": 60.678, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.51, "rotation_up": 28.86, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 51.0, "rotation_down": 33.99, "downward_expansion": 35.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.334667, 4.297046, 4.576887, 4.620472 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 4.55021, "distance_from_trend": -0.028616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.061288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.558259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139175, "excess_performance": 0.182379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035583, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.871201, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272439046, "relative_activity": 0.485623, "balance": 0.871201, "dry_up": 0.748792, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145261, "annualized_volatility": 0.866704, "from_high_reference": -0.391185, "from_low_reference": 0.197832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.55021, "fair_value_reference": 4.061288, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.051198, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029363, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.342995, "worst_return": -0.115909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032783, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.053549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.494845, "worst_return": -0.194672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343109, "worst_return": -0.098765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076716, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.110607, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.413843, "worst_return": -0.037492, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112223, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.027569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03705, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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44.345276, "activity_lines": [ 4.192667, 4.472718, 4.713358, 4.659351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.17, "volume": 673584897, "typical_volume": 568001578.05, "trend": 4.517544, "fair_value": 4.062849, "relative_strength": 0.845269, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.672482, "energy": 37.545121, "activity_lines": [ 4.190667, 4.372268, 4.653566, 4.637725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 346348379, "typical_volume": 568243185.6, "trend": 4.529877, "fair_value": 4.061118, "relative_strength": 4.985346, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.86633, "energy": 21.364428, "activity_lines": [ 4.266, 4.322741, 4.612393, 4.627561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 272439046, "typical_volume": 561009930.0, "trend": 4.55021, "fair_value": 4.061288, "relative_strength": 3.558259, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.499914, "energy": 11.263355, "activity_lines": [ 4.334667, 4.297046, 4.576887, 4.620472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }