{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb59d358-3118-41b6-8bb8-12dda3389138", "symbol": "CMO", "name": "Cosmo Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.759, "architecture_energy": 53.13, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.73, "rotation_up": 17.82, "upward_expansion": 7.87, "deceleration": 48.5, "rotation_down": 64.77, "downward_expansion": 83.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0062, 0.006527, 0.007638, 0.008115 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.008978, "distance_from_trend": -0.331677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.028302, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.788004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.644375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.419224, "excess_performance": -0.482929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.331677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.788004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.566444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.419224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3017754, "relative_activity": 0.857966, "balance": 0.5031, "dry_up": 1.316153, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 1.013036, "from_high_reference": -0.785714, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008978, "fair_value_reference": 0.028302, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.259259, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.051477, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.173913, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.177673, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.374845, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.600387, "energy": 79.070457, "activity_lines": [ 0.006667, 0.007891, 0.008467, 0.008982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2864500, "typical_volume": 3595113.7, "trend": 0.009744, "fair_value": 0.029783, "relative_strength": -56.806864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.566999, "energy": 81.934849, "activity_lines": [ 0.006267, 0.007382, 0.00821, 0.008728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3925749, "typical_volume": 3512365.45, "trend": 0.009511, "fair_value": 0.029187, "relative_strength": -48.594999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.817521, "energy": 74.955594, "activity_lines": [ 0.0064, 0.007164, 0.008071, 0.008551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 8709414, "typical_volume": 3790006.6, "trend": 0.009244, "fair_value": 0.028745, "relative_strength": -56.04908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.96358, "energy": 66.766658, "activity_lines": [ 0.006267, 0.006818, 0.007848, 0.008324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 3017754, "typical_volume": 3517336.4, "trend": 0.008978, "fair_value": 0.028302, "relative_strength": -56.644375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.759171, "energy": 53.130332, "activity_lines": [ 0.0062, 0.006527, 0.007638, 0.008115 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }