{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb73d8c3-a076-440f-9ad8-5eb62dc92447", "symbol": "WMG", "name": "Warner Music Group Corp.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.162, "architecture_energy": 47.835, "architecture_maturity": 38.323, "architecture_confidence": 76.603, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.3, "rotation_up": 15.33, "upward_expansion": 23.85, "deceleration": 51.34, "rotation_down": 64.77, "downward_expansion": 51.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.359334, 23.876364, 24.913861, 24.786628 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.93, "trend_reference": 24.72914, "distance_from_trend": -0.072754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.866972, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.161492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082716, "excess_performance": -0.256963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146536, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082716, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1775, "relative_activity": 4.631442, "balance": 1.201531, "dry_up": 3.277886, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076119, "annualized_volatility": 0.455213, "from_high_reference": -0.240706, "from_low_reference": 0.137817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.72914, "fair_value_reference": 26.866972, "structural_low": 20.152622, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027034, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.032128, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.071653, "worst_return": -0.137883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075227, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.113965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153792, "worst_return": -0.235518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034722, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098554, "worst_return": -0.332009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031665, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.080365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108934, "worst_return": -0.10877, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126539, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-06-12", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24.85, "trend": 24.972778, "fair_value": 26.910616, "relative_strength": -21.591575, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.950395, "energy": 34.069396, "activity_lines": [ 26.853353, 26.868876, 25.57703, 25.254769 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24.85, "trend": 24.900661, "fair_value": 26.925133, "relative_strength": -24.413172, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.659421, "energy": 20.967748, "activity_lines": [ 25.816, 26.526806, 25.542695, 25.227493 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 23.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24.6, "trend": 24.888246, "fair_value": 26.933728, "relative_strength": -25.630867, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.491467, "energy": 31.167863, "activity_lines": [ 24.714, 26.001051, 25.416421, 25.142289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24.6, "trend": 24.918901, "fair_value": 26.943538, "relative_strength": -22.499205, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.195285, "energy": 26.842683, "activity_lines": [ 24.524, 25.776339, 25.43404, 25.150789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.34, "volume": 2148, "typical_volume": 132.0, "trend": 24.981588, "fair_value": 26.953915, "relative_strength": -20.026454, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.553482, "energy": 20.085784, "activity_lines": [ 24.744666, 25.600447, 25.478977, 25.177957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.370001, "volume": 652, "typical_volume": 164.6, "trend": 24.967896, "fair_value": 26.944655, "relative_strength": -21.014934, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.803915, "energy": 22.061513, "activity_lines": [ 24.665334, 25.219642, 25.430161, 25.1385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 164.6, "trend": 24.931561, "fair_value": 26.92346, "relative_strength": -23.551027, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.230848, "energy": 21.006655, "activity_lines": [ 24.388, 24.787455, 25.317255, 25.059281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.610001, "volume": 2598, "typical_volume": 294.5, "trend": 24.834549, "fair_value": 26.899475, "relative_strength": -26.653208, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.256624, "energy": 28.844464, "activity_lines": [ 23.788001, 24.235091, 25.098245, 24.909503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.93, "volume": 1775, "typical_volume": 383.25, "trend": 24.72914, "fair_value": 26.866972, "relative_strength": -27.161492, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.162243, "energy": 47.835138, "activity_lines": [ 23.359334, 23.876364, 24.913861, 24.786628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }