{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb74c0d9-41eb-4098-8388-a5284f14651c", "symbol": "PCOM-B", "name": "Precomp Solutions AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.989, "architecture_energy": 14.167, "architecture_maturity": 43.552, "architecture_confidence": 92.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.48, "rotation_up": 21.17, "upward_expansion": 50.28, "deceleration": 91.85, "rotation_down": 30.13, "downward_expansion": 18.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.246, 1.295636, 1.293167, 1.215387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.25, "trend_reference": 1.119667, "distance_from_trend": 0.116404, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.973077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.822731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.436782, "excess_performance": 0.375287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116404, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048227, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.436782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.817434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86070, "relative_activity": 1.335622, "balance": 5.817434, "dry_up": 0.738177, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.273846, "annualized_volatility": 0.600317, "from_high_reference": -0.703791, "from_low_reference": 0.533742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.119667, "fair_value_reference": 0.973077, "structural_low": 0.845, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.116279, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.131656, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.113514, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.170566, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.114857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.254054, "worst_return": -0.229974, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.335554, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.244857, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.286486, "worst_return": -0.425, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091954, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 1.353333, 1.398, 1.265833, 1.177989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.25, "volume": 2758, "typical_volume": 94102.05, "trend": 1.098, "fair_value": 0.96609, "relative_strength": 11.559522, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.091133, "energy": 19.199409, "activity_lines": [ 1.305333, 1.373455, 1.275333, 1.188333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.31, "volume": 45862, "typical_volume": 63506.6, "trend": 1.108333, "fair_value": 0.968782, "relative_strength": 14.238772, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.228159, "energy": 17.844341, "activity_lines": [ 1.293333, 1.359455, 1.288881, 1.202011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.18, "volume": 55588, "typical_volume": 66209.5, "trend": 1.114333, "fair_value": 0.970673, "relative_strength": 1.294167, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.07472, "energy": 14.970321, "activity_lines": [ 1.252, 1.320727, 1.288333, 1.206634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.25, "volume": 86070, "typical_volume": 64441.9, "trend": 1.119667, "fair_value": 0.973077, "relative_strength": 4.822731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.988547, "energy": 14.166606, "activity_lines": [ 1.246, 1.295636, 1.293167, 1.215387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }