{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb7509ab-a001-4a64-94de-3a0653520b32", "symbol": "IEV", "name": "iShares Europe ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.74, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.653, "architecture_energy": 91.797, "architecture_maturity": 17.839, "architecture_confidence": 88.802, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.07, "rotation_up": 67.64, "upward_expansion": 92.77, "deceleration": 47.58, "rotation_down": 18.79, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 1264.65, 1261.134852, 1252.671294, 1246.420257 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1271.0, "trend_reference": 1242.444722, "distance_from_trend": 0.022983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1087.218608, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169038, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.219362, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020384, "excess_performance": 0.07505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012194, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101624, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 104.6, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 104.6, "dry_up": 0.072869, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005206, "annualized_volatility": 0.097959, "from_high_reference": -0.020046, "from_low_reference": 0.096524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1242.444722, "fair_value_reference": 1087.218608, "structural_low": 1196.300049, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.001846, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.097676, "worst_return": -0.05672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02125, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.006263, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.130762, "worst_return": -0.07479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056517, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.112669, "worst_return": -0.053559, 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"relative_strength": 0.591775, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.571881, "energy": 73.724413, "activity_lines": [ 1254.833333, 1255.498109, 1246.339882, 1242.60192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1271.0, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": 250.45, "trend": 1241.961389, "fair_value": 1084.507934, "relative_strength": 1.12098, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.763988, "energy": 89.723579, "activity_lines": [ 1260.3, 1258.587886, 1249.674636, 1244.546798 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1271.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 250.45, "trend": 1242.444722, "fair_value": 1087.218608, "relative_strength": 1.219362, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.652606, "energy": 91.797106, "activity_lines": [ 1264.65, 1261.134852, 1252.671294, 1246.420257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }