{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb7fb228-e26f-466c-8bb7-8bb4b1111a35", "symbol": "M44", "name": "MARA Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.189, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.786, "architecture_energy": 22.057, "architecture_maturity": 23.439, "architecture_confidence": 48.462, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.08, "rotation_up": 56.78, "upward_expansion": 60.57, "deceleration": 57.01, "rotation_down": 8.41, "downward_expansion": 15.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.522733, 10.112527, 10.247557, 10.330523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.098, "trend_reference": 10.068533, "distance_from_trend": 0.002927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.360524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.60627, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.501115, "excess_performance": 0.412065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002927, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.034737, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066035, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.034737, "worst_return": 0.034737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-09-04", "end": "2026-10-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034737, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-02-28", "close": 13.344, "volume": 58222, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "close": 13.9, "volume": 39586, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "close": 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"activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 9.494, "volume": 17898, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 9.759, "volume": 35196, "typical_volume": 39356.4, "trend": 9.5777, "fair_value": 11.39675, "relative_strength": -12.210547, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.913816, "energy": 23.548955, "activity_lines": [ 9.330533, 9.505509, 10.242052, 10.110239 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 10.556, "volume": 49566, "typical_volume": 36777.85, "trend": 9.7205, "fair_value": 11.38637, "relative_strength": -2.538353, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.230825, "energy": 9.063452, "activity_lines": [ 9.8176, 9.640436, 10.240733, 10.173355 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 11.08, "volume": 40571, "typical_volume": 35565.6, "trend": 9.865133, "fair_value": 11.382634, "relative_strength": 4.470202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.144082, "energy": 25.699526, "activity_lines": [ 10.363333, 9.880709, 10.285376, 10.261065 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 10.81, "volume": 121345, "typical_volume": 37282.2, "trend": 9.966267, "fair_value": 11.375735, "relative_strength": 2.221731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.225562, "energy": 25.31236, "activity_lines": [ 10.603333, 10.075309, 10.300867, 10.322024 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 10.098, "volume": 96463, "typical_volume": 39020.8, "trend": 10.068533, "fair_value": 11.360524, "relative_strength": -2.60627, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.786343, "energy": 22.05688, "activity_lines": [ 10.522733, 10.112527, 10.247557, 10.330523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }