{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb840215-ac41-46b2-97f3-8e7eec781210", "symbol": "6565", "name": "ThroughTek Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.463, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.106, "architecture_energy": 55.151, "architecture_maturity": 9.634, "architecture_confidence": 68.208, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.07, "rotation_up": 18.65, "upward_expansion": 20.22, "deceleration": 43.93, "rotation_down": 66.18, "downward_expansion": 61.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.97, 17.631818, 19.162143, 19.201398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.0, "trend_reference": 18.856667, "distance_from_trend": -0.04543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.0375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.61529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107692, "excess_performance": -0.33368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133119, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107692, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 409540, "relative_activity": 0.469611, "balance": 0.388419, "dry_up": 0.286101, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117735, "annualized_volatility": 0.512649, "from_high_reference": -0.504132, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.856667, "fair_value_reference": 21.0375, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036168, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.015689, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.128571, "worst_return": -0.068376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009639, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121429, "worst_return": -0.164491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.660714, "worst_return": -0.274151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.131818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018076, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.185542, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180124, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147196, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048295, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.273256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035794, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156098, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114551, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 14.0, "volume": 298533, "typical_volume": 276287.25, "trend": 15.318333, "fair_value": 18.007372, "relative_strength": -15.034105, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", 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19.363333, 20.222727, 20.556667, 19.822473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.5, "volume": 206785, "typical_volume": 929534.25, "trend": 18.956667, "fair_value": 21.020833, "relative_strength": -34.368681, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.414502, "energy": 25.722934, "activity_lines": [ 18.616667, 19.582727, 20.335476, 19.727957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 169651, "typical_volume": 930486.55, "trend": 18.946667, "fair_value": 21.022756, "relative_strength": -35.80038, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.64204, "energy": 49.664271, "activity_lines": [ 18.003333, 19.019091, 20.087857, 19.621075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.15, "volume": 261261, "typical_volume": 937800.7, "trend": 18.893333, "fair_value": 21.021474, "relative_strength": -38.491879, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.999904, "energy": 59.513305, "activity_lines": [ 17.226666, 18.348182, 19.725952, 19.440645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 157562, "typical_volume": 933959.95, "trend": 18.815, "fair_value": 21.021474, "relative_strength": -39.757407, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.927261, "energy": 65.080381, "activity_lines": [ 16.653333, 17.762727, 19.351428, 19.253978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.0, "volume": 409540, "typical_volume": 872083.25, "trend": 18.856667, "fair_value": 21.0375, "relative_strength": -33.61529, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.106251, "energy": 55.151001, "activity_lines": [ 16.97, 17.631818, 19.162143, 19.201398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }