{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb88e2cc-f6c2-457c-8623-81f8e2e1eebe", "symbol": "WEBS", "name": "DIREXION DAILY DOW JONES INTERNET BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.753, "architecture_energy": 55.437, "architecture_maturity": 39.419, "architecture_confidence": 92.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.84, "rotation_up": 20.15, "upward_expansion": 8.76, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 62.02, "downward_expansion": 84.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.085333, 17.938227, 18.59348, 20.223754 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.56, "trend_reference": 21.992377, "distance_from_trend": -0.337952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.480098, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.686748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.86472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.442372, "excess_performance": -0.567997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.337952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.686748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.378647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.442372, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 535596, "relative_activity": 1.324392, "balance": 0.742296, "dry_up": 0.740851, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193801, "annualized_volatility": 0.721744, "from_high_reference": -0.562105, "from_low_reference": 0.045977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.992377, "fair_value_reference": 46.480098, "structural_low": 13.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.033511, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.068761, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.295861, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.075551, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.028728, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.315924, "worst_return": -0.426312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.139491, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.178546, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.420908, "worst_return": -0.435466, "sufficient": true }, { 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-27.300952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.451923, "energy": 34.394023, "activity_lines": [ 18.75988, 18.66271, 20.055992, 21.427189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.23, "volume": 228674, "typical_volume": 450860.7, "trend": 22.267897, "fair_value": 48.2635, "relative_strength": -20.485761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.96286, "energy": 42.122974, "activity_lines": [ 18.455337, 18.591266, 19.696341, 21.163502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.52, "volume": 216567, "typical_volume": 413204.85, "trend": 22.307301, "fair_value": 47.737116, "relative_strength": -9.768727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.454031, "energy": 31.079547, "activity_lines": [ 19.010667, 18.953832, 19.593688, 21.050734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.11, "volume": 217590, "typical_volume": 396179.8, "trend": 22.180887, "fair_value": 47.136081, "relative_strength": -25.020954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.153242, "energy": 42.006173, "activity_lines": [ 18.348, 18.670419, 19.190097, 20.715424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.56, "volume": 535596, "typical_volume": 404408.9, "trend": 21.992377, "fair_value": 46.480098, "relative_strength": -37.86472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.75255, "energy": 55.436822, "activity_lines": [ 17.085333, 17.938227, 18.59348, 20.223754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }