{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb8a2f67-3cc6-4e11-8eba-8ccc0ab090c2", "symbol": "300407", "name": "Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.37, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.657, "architecture_energy": 21.27, "architecture_maturity": 54.123, "architecture_confidence": 75.153, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.39, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 16.8, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 33.72, "downward_expansion": 64.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.340667, 11.10527, 11.639161, 12.042468 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.51, "trend_reference": 12.469713, "distance_from_trend": 0.003231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.078926, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.35966, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026459, "excess_performance": -0.033859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003231, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029343, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241204, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140631, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.129756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111543535, "relative_activity": 2.733448, "balance": 2.129756, "dry_up": 2.306961, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103136, "annualized_volatility": 0.38584, "from_high_reference": -0.174257, "from_low_reference": 0.373216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.469713, "fair_value_reference": 10.078926, "structural_low": 9.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.061461, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.039159, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.203593, "worst_return": -0.030907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.120135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073569, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.358643, "worst_return": 0.093085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.210738, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.187065, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.417034, "worst_return": -0.126328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -86.469702, "energy": 90.064246, "activity_lines": [ 10.317459, 10.973164, 11.820276, 12.206843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.87, "volume": 74990267, "typical_volume": 31209333.95, "trend": 12.432713, "fair_value": 10.038778, "relative_strength": -10.569889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.509106, "energy": 74.73101, "activity_lines": [ 10.402243, 10.845866, 11.676317, 12.104582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.39, "volume": 160983954, "typical_volume": 37025786.65, "trend": 12.430046, "fair_value": 10.053544, "relative_strength": -4.648316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.103815, "energy": 46.358908, "activity_lines": [ 10.699666, 10.856386, 11.598406, 12.03731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.51, "volume": 111543535, "typical_volume": 40806893.0, "trend": 12.469713, "fair_value": 10.078926, "relative_strength": -0.35966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.656779, "energy": 21.269552, "activity_lines": [ 11.340667, 11.10527, 11.639161, 12.042468 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }