{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb8f7185-65b9-4f31-9011-f7d7b8ac0061", "symbol": "HFT", "name": "Hwa Fong Rubber (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.116, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.256, "architecture_energy": 15.205, "architecture_maturity": 36.592, "architecture_confidence": 39.744, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.5, "rotation_up": 31.72, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 51.52, "rotation_down": 32.84, "downward_expansion": 36.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.046667, 4.037455, 4.076762, 4.098132 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.08, "trend_reference": 4.097493, "distance_from_trend": -0.004269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.853194, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058862, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.751465, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011782, "excess_performance": -0.180543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058862, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011782, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.395968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1073100, "relative_activity": 0.770183, "balance": 2.395968, "dry_up": 0.416169, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021493, "annualized_volatility": 0.1676, "from_high_reference": -0.113043, "from_low_reference": 0.250191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.097493, "fair_value_reference": 3.853194, "structural_low": 3.807419, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.024397, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.032051, "worst_return": -0.023256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.128485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15847, "worst_return": -0.028302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.071357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212014, "worst_return": -0.103774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039801, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 4.081654, "fair_value": 3.841861, "relative_strength": -15.035249, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.984066, "energy": 62.498564, "activity_lines": [ 4.004, 4.046545, 4.101893, 4.104587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.02, "volume": 747800, "typical_volume": 1485595.0, "trend": 4.086865, "fair_value": 3.845214, "relative_strength": -14.381809, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.872375, "energy": 54.502803, "activity_lines": [ 4.006667, 4.034545, 4.090286, 4.10061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 129400, "typical_volume": 1415810.0, "trend": 4.091533, "fair_value": 3.848928, "relative_strength": -12.100516, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.138465, "energy": 29.506564, "activity_lines": [ 4.025333, 4.033091, 4.08219, 4.098876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.08, "volume": 1073100, "typical_volume": 1393305.0, "trend": 4.097493, "fair_value": 3.853194, "relative_strength": -10.751465, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.2565, "energy": 15.205067, "activity_lines": [ 4.046667, 4.037455, 4.076762, 4.098132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }