{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb9895a4-c879-4b70-8a35-d48d2060b8b9", "symbol": "600710", "name": "Sumec Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.868, "architecture_energy": 24.548, "architecture_maturity": 66.327, "architecture_confidence": 76.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.03, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 25.9, "downward_expansion": 61.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.634, 10.468484, 10.834868, 11.26162 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.56, "trend_reference": 11.627537, "distance_from_trend": -0.091811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.151584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.009766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09589, "excess_performance": -0.052687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050098, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51790984, "relative_activity": 0.897197, "balance": 0.790675, "dry_up": 0.995745, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071842, "annualized_volatility": 0.411968, "from_high_reference": -0.30572, "from_low_reference": 0.101147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.627537, "fair_value_reference": 9.151584, "structural_low": 9.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.036285, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.026281, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.146648, "worst_return": -0.08983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.139396, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.120445, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.210864, "worst_return": -0.063518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.157544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.187681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.488089, "worst_return": 0.133952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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47015265, "typical_volume": 73351110.7, "trend": 11.634203, "fair_value": 9.080725, "relative_strength": -12.20221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.862927, "energy": 81.032097, "activity_lines": [ 10.104258, 10.498098, 11.21527, 11.521307 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.24, "volume": 58218376, "typical_volume": 71403224.55, "trend": 11.632203, "fair_value": 9.095854, "relative_strength": -3.990427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.240736, "energy": 75.619666, "activity_lines": [ 10.111333, 10.381873, 11.059812, 11.431358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.52, "volume": 60205534, "typical_volume": 64458487.6, "trend": 11.62287, "fair_value": 9.111892, "relative_strength": -2.518604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.316539, "energy": 50.778941, "activity_lines": [ 10.24, 10.354537, 10.944736, 11.359603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.18, "volume": 59703859, "typical_volume": 59775097.9, "trend": 11.63587, "fair_value": 9.13346, "relative_strength": 3.154891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.006019, "energy": 32.913006, "activity_lines": [ 10.591333, 10.463817, 10.913849, 11.331031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.56, "volume": 51790984, "typical_volume": 57725318.8, "trend": 11.627537, "fair_value": 9.151584, "relative_strength": -5.009766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.868329, "energy": 24.547733, "activity_lines": [ 10.634, 10.468484, 10.834868, 11.26162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }