{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb9a1204-892c-4ffe-b98c-249058622bf7", "symbol": "ACTINVRB", "name": "Corporaci\u00f3n Actinver, S. A. B. de C. V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.915, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.383, "architecture_energy": 15.724, "architecture_maturity": 36.162, "architecture_confidence": 48.175, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.98, "rotation_up": 35.21, "upward_expansion": 61.36, "deceleration": 61.06, "rotation_down": 22.87, "downward_expansion": 11.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.6, 21.576975, 21.578009, 21.517057 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.5, "trend_reference": 21.44292, "distance_from_trend": 0.002662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.080188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.476961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.00638, "excess_performance": 0.061047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017743, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02477, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1519991, "relative_activity": 13.966141, "balance": 0.36489, "dry_up": 3.734341, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020551, "annualized_volatility": 0.116688, "from_high_reference": -0.069099, "from_low_reference": 0.226813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.44292, "fair_value_reference": 17.080188, "structural_low": 19.054114, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.020956, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.009975, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.089109, "worst_return": -0.011487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08939, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062139, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.128866, "worst_return": 0.016429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176501, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.152265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284536, "worst_return": 0.128616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.135738, "energy": 20.694735, "activity_lines": [ 21.633333, 21.596624, 21.575467, 21.513703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.5, "volume": 1519991, "typical_volume": 108834.0, "trend": 21.44292, "fair_value": 17.080188, "relative_strength": 2.476961, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.383231, "energy": 15.723817, "activity_lines": [ 21.6, 21.576975, 21.578009, 21.517057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }