{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bba34ff6-f1cc-4074-8330-038a8d3da29d", "symbol": "1713", "name": "Cathay Chemical Works Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.553, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.591, "architecture_energy": 14.803, "architecture_maturity": 7.089, "architecture_confidence": 45.742, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.59, "rotation_up": 19.72, "upward_expansion": 16.54, "deceleration": 57.91, "rotation_down": 52.21, "downward_expansion": 41.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.328239, 44.719277, 45.018396, 44.874815 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.450001, "trend_reference": 44.839758, "distance_from_trend": 0.013609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.474941, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.212713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048774, "excess_performance": -0.392598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030252, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048774, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.600481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1490702, "relative_activity": 1.507796, "balance": 1.600481, "dry_up": 1.187313, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04074, "annualized_volatility": 0.191692, "from_high_reference": -0.107099, "from_low_reference": 0.154522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.839758, "fair_value_reference": 40.474941, "structural_low": 40.767894, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006815, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013012, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.046025, "worst_return": -0.075258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027736, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.025154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.061856, "worst_return": -0.033403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002761, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.141109, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.023344, "worst_return": -0.028866, "sufficient": false }, { 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45.667001, 45.234947, 44.983621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.017464, "volume": 649713, "typical_volume": 1016779.6, "trend": 44.684348, "fair_value": 40.132886, "relative_strength": -27.047948, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.07389, "energy": 17.479261, "activity_lines": [ 45.014352, 45.543886, 45.256295, 45.014452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.056122, "volume": 995070, "typical_volume": 998437.8, "trend": 44.73883, "fair_value": 40.243185, "relative_strength": -28.477282, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.124935, "energy": 27.928962, "activity_lines": [ 44.260947, 45.059069, 45.081509, 44.909405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.549999, "volume": 1559924, "typical_volume": 978153.55, "trend": 44.797321, "fair_value": 40.351503, "relative_strength": -28.541112, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.038904, "energy": 33.115534, "activity_lines": [ 43.883868, 44.692916, 44.957316, 44.832706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 45.450001, "volume": 1490702, "typical_volume": 988663.15, "trend": 44.839758, "fair_value": 40.474941, "relative_strength": -27.212713, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.590515, "energy": 14.803074, "activity_lines": [ 44.328239, 44.719277, 45.018396, 44.874815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }