{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bba9ea77-f3e1-4444-a7e3-74b5307874b6", "symbol": "OPH", "name": "Ophir Asset Management Pty Ltd - Ophir High Conviction Fund", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.676, "architecture_energy": 15.207, "architecture_maturity": 28.488, "architecture_confidence": 63.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.41, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 17.6, "deceleration": 46.31, "rotation_down": 20.51, "downward_expansion": 51.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.518667, 2.493443, 2.497518, 2.556684 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 2.675664, "distance_from_trend": -0.061915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.632976, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.741722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152027, "excess_performance": -0.215733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033245, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.135809, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1931974, "relative_activity": 1.512731, "balance": 2.135809, "dry_up": 2.34299, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052945, "annualized_volatility": 0.252561, "from_high_reference": -0.312329, "from_low_reference": 0.135784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.675664, "fair_value_reference": 2.632976, "structural_low": 2.209928, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.00615, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.017594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.092105, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016529, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070744, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128327, "worst_return": -0.204268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015818, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107582, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.142655, "worst_return": -0.28084, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114983, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.167933, "volume": 1045664, "typical_volume": 614020.7, "trend": 2.107178, "fair_value": 2.448509, "relative_strength": 3.132092, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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2.628429, "relative_strength": -16.568793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.195721, "energy": 24.622599, "activity_lines": [ 2.485751, 2.452166, 2.506659, 2.595092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.52, "volume": 7097010, "typical_volume": 1170548.8, "trend": 2.720664, "fair_value": 2.629599, "relative_strength": -14.600231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.309335, "energy": 21.034718, "activity_lines": [ 2.501202, 2.463804, 2.501803, 2.580641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.54, "volume": 1742434, "typical_volume": 1221317.9, "trend": 2.700664, "fair_value": 2.631298, "relative_strength": -15.527082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.975019, "energy": 19.618143, "activity_lines": [ 2.519333, 2.480533, 2.500422, 2.568985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 1931974, "typical_volume": 1277143.15, "trend": 2.675664, "fair_value": 2.632976, "relative_strength": -18.741722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.675664, "energy": 15.2072, "activity_lines": [ 2.518667, 2.493443, 2.497518, 2.556684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }