{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbb83977-4083-4677-a290-0061ec5bb314", "symbol": "I1RP34", "name": "Trane Technologies plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.645, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.306, "architecture_energy": 19.404, "architecture_maturity": 53.313, "architecture_confidence": 83.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.71, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 61.55, "deceleration": 88.18, "rotation_down": 28.92, "downward_expansion": 16.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 1207.330021, 1217.225655, 1199.089958, 1182.02283 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1227.25, "trend_reference": 1158.011261, "distance_from_trend": 0.059791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 955.582861, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.641567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060227, "excess_performance": 0.117275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059791, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036567, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284295, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036416, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152224, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.210877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23, "relative_activity": 0.190555, "balance": 0.210877, "dry_up": 0.87821, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046208, "annualized_volatility": 0.245682, "from_high_reference": -0.054645, "from_low_reference": 0.231192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1158.011261, "fair_value_reference": 955.582861, "structural_low": 1073.690177, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019107, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.03127, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.291052, "worst_return": -0.085114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.10334, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.115637, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.334027, "worst_return": -0.033883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.151511, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.083676, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.383343, "worst_return": -0.195691, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.066944, "energy": 75.764444, "activity_lines": [ 1241.056014, 1214.759189, 1183.559717, 1166.322386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1214.910034, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 114.2, "trend": 1143.831362, "fair_value": 941.615139, "relative_strength": 0.081361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.385782, "energy": 62.768679, "activity_lines": [ 1235.873356, 1217.58554, 1188.53519, 1171.205657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1217.560059, "volume": 84, "typical_volume": 118.4, "trend": 1148.210187, "fair_value": 946.47568, "relative_strength": 0.756433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.217761, "energy": 44.859042, "activity_lines": [ 1227.928036, 1220.499305, 1193.589579, 1175.962347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1165.76001, "volume": 245, "typical_volume": 119.6, "trend": 1150.862343, "fair_value": 950.830402, "relative_strength": -4.965531, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.016738, "energy": 17.916673, "activity_lines": [ 1205.20603, 1213.552288, 1193.534202, 1177.094594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1227.25, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 120.7, "trend": 1158.011261, "fair_value": 955.582861, "relative_strength": 3.641567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.306049, "energy": 19.404455, "activity_lines": [ 1207.330021, 1217.225655, 1199.089958, 1182.02283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }