{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbbc6d7c-0f42-4a74-a6e2-f9280db6780a", "symbol": "300987", "name": "Sichuan Newsnet Media (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.58, "architecture_energy": 45.939, "architecture_maturity": 88.866, "architecture_confidence": 68.643, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 26.58, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 47.35, "downward_expansion": 71.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.905333, 12.862371, 13.810359, 14.877726 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.39, "trend_reference": 16.434492, "distance_from_trend": -0.18525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.03467, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.459383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.377499, "excess_performance": -0.384899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.377499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.298495, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21975881, "relative_activity": 1.322867, "balance": 0.298495, "dry_up": 1.308195, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095809, "annualized_volatility": 0.355225, "from_high_reference": -0.499439, "from_low_reference": 0.144444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.434492, "fair_value_reference": 16.03467, "structural_low": 11.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.008976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011168, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.338339, "worst_return": -0.165756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.213953, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.053335, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.329839, "worst_return": -0.086688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.081617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079108, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.331933, "worst_return": -0.322448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027894, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094188, 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"energy": 67.994338, "activity_lines": [ 12.689146, 13.157853, 14.499903, 15.620768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.78, "volume": 21674931, "typical_volume": 16538986.3, "trend": 16.656491, "fair_value": 16.100707, "relative_strength": -32.896077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.703529, "energy": 69.242564, "activity_lines": [ 12.364667, 12.798568, 14.141451, 15.295446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.34, "volume": 21985481, "typical_volume": 16440226.5, "trend": 16.548158, "fair_value": 16.063914, "relative_strength": -21.955839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.622173, "energy": 57.897443, "activity_lines": [ 12.660667, 12.805671, 13.962238, 15.081478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.39, "volume": 21975881, "typical_volume": 16612317.15, "trend": 16.434492, "fair_value": 16.03467, "relative_strength": -24.459383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.579526, "energy": 45.93901, "activity_lines": [ 12.905333, 12.862371, 13.810359, 14.877726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }