{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbbf4659-3cf0-417c-9b6a-2a3cdd15b37f", "symbol": "LOPP", "name": "GABELLI ETFS TR GABELLI LOVE OUR PLANET & PEOPLE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.463, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.959, "architecture_energy": 23.216, "architecture_maturity": 51.673, "architecture_confidence": 79.1, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.72, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 57.69, "deceleration": 87.77, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 19.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.111507, 38.299291, 38.007521, 37.477501 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.777, "trend_reference": 36.85994, "distance_from_trend": 0.052009, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.044819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.050236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060443, "excess_performance": -0.065182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052009, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051037, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060443, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.579418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1274, "relative_activity": 0.700462, "balance": 0.579418, "dry_up": 0.384594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028741, "annualized_volatility": 0.149717, "from_high_reference": -0.030575, "from_low_reference": 0.372714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.85994, "fair_value_reference": 29.044819, "structural_low": 33.609, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021724, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.006571, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.092573, "worst_return": -0.055364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029994, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009857, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.157291, "worst_return": -0.116447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082377, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142825, "worst_return": 0.039221, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 38.79744, 38.387138, 37.635429, 37.086855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.9885, "volume": 385, "typical_volume": 2087.7, "trend": 36.434669, "fair_value": 28.785689, "relative_strength": 0.970895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.526537, "energy": 45.591107, "activity_lines": [ 38.5499, 38.374749, 37.741974, 37.19763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.8875, "volume": 751, "typical_volume": 1959.15, "trend": 36.579787, "fair_value": 28.867115, "relative_strength": 1.226047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.791025, "energy": 32.080761, "activity_lines": [ 38.273033, 38.338155, 37.832601, 37.291362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.3997, "volume": 388, "typical_volume": 1839.5, "trend": 36.711753, "fair_value": 28.950893, "relative_strength": -1.187402, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.0778, "energy": 20.798191, "activity_lines": [ 37.90076, 38.197067, 37.861665, 37.344259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.777, "volume": 1274, "typical_volume": 1818.8, "trend": 36.85994, "fair_value": 29.044819, "relative_strength": -1.050236, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.9585, "energy": 23.216173, "activity_lines": [ 38.111507, 38.299291, 38.007521, 37.477501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }