{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbbf7a28-8cbd-4512-9344-bfae08cf2e95", "symbol": "TBNK", "name": "TD Canadian Bank Dividend Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.871, "architecture_energy": 65.525, "architecture_maturity": 92.603, "architecture_confidence": 78.373, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 53.7, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.37, "rotation_down": 28.13, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.66964, 54.192963, 52.069789, 49.913117 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 54.580002, "trend_reference": 47.169494, "distance_from_trend": 0.157104, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.621098, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.726063, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.253843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.302993, "excess_performance": 0.182572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157104, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.726063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.132538, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017706, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.403572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 590700, "relative_activity": 2.57554, "balance": 3.403572, "dry_up": 2.309353, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028886, "annualized_volatility": 0.15416, "from_high_reference": -0.027703, "from_low_reference": 0.64737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.169494, "fair_value_reference": 31.621098, "structural_low": 40.581843, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.022234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007675, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.084211, "worst_return": -0.033518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.099843, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.023194, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.167249, "worst_return": -0.018473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.241033, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109675, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.294407, "worst_return": 0.036759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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54.621256, 53.497886, 50.984589, 48.880274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.459999, "volume": 604300, "typical_volume": 209690.0, "trend": 46.735603, "fair_value": 31.413445, "relative_strength": 17.2323, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.742504, "energy": 67.237668, "activity_lines": [ 54.669091, 53.87755, 51.552271, 49.407027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.580002, "volume": 590700, "typical_volume": 229350.0, "trend": 47.169494, "fair_value": 31.621098, "relative_strength": 13.253843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.870702, "energy": 65.524938, "activity_lines": [ 54.66964, 54.192963, 52.069789, 49.913117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }