{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbc48914-282c-4d01-a0dc-633eb3207913", "symbol": "HATSUN", "name": "Hatsun Agro Product Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.414, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.982, "architecture_energy": 5.858, "architecture_maturity": 44.801, "architecture_confidence": 60.735, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.88, "rotation_up": 34.36, "upward_expansion": 22.27, "deceleration": 57.82, "rotation_down": 34.57, "downward_expansion": 35.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 911.083329, 910.628183, 916.851016, 918.425701 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 941.099976, "trend_reference": 915.671547, "distance_from_trend": 0.02777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1007.743502, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.809453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039339, "excess_performance": 0.083048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018095, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204283, "relative_activity": 1.581543, "balance": 0.51612, "dry_up": 1.509758, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040963, "annualized_volatility": 0.202834, "from_high_reference": -0.193168, "from_low_reference": 0.112188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 915.671547, "fair_value_reference": 1007.743502, "structural_low": 860.762022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007548, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.001816, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.15712, "worst_return": -0.078535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006718, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058802, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.357642, "worst_return": -0.069655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.071027, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.037384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235099, "worst_return": -0.105637, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083738, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004893, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"2026-08-07", "close": 941.099976, "volume": 204283, "typical_volume": 129166.9, "trend": 915.671547, "fair_value": 1007.743502, "relative_strength": 1.809453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.982019, "energy": 5.857623, "activity_lines": [ 911.083329, 910.628183, 916.851016, 918.425701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }