{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbc7efbf-d625-4ac0-bad5-cf138e259171", "symbol": "G92", "name": "China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.459, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.57, "architecture_energy": 69.74, "architecture_maturity": 9.893, "architecture_confidence": 92.642, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.09, "rotation_up": 12.28, "upward_expansion": 15.99, "deceleration": 38.16, "rotation_down": 65.54, "downward_expansion": 86.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.690667, 1.732182, 1.82757, 1.871754 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.7, "trend_reference": 1.886095, "distance_from_trend": -0.098667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.105403, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.403202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000646, "excess_performance": -0.154189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.468861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.449261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3381300, "relative_activity": 0.63652, "balance": 0.312624, "dry_up": 1.019678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074661, "annualized_volatility": 0.419967, "from_high_reference": -0.25593, "from_low_reference": 0.540818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.886095, "fair_value_reference": 1.105403, "structural_low": 1.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.006009, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.153845, "worst_return": -0.187499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025907, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.016146, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.263513, "worst_return": -0.149424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028249, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.028259, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.657934, "worst_return": -0.096154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041666, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.23, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134329, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.810667, 1.85128, 1.932904, 1.924403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 7965300, "typical_volume": 7024140.0, "trend": 1.877523, "fair_value": 1.088491, "relative_strength": -16.162829, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.461878, "energy": 65.926608, "activity_lines": [ 1.735333, 1.797091, 1.897496, 1.906685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.66, "volume": 3203400, "typical_volume": 6434595.0, "trend": 1.879807, "fair_value": 1.093929, "relative_strength": -14.373883, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.077218, "energy": 66.886395, "activity_lines": [ 1.694, 1.762, 1.869576, 1.892651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.74, "volume": 7116800, "typical_volume": 6083845.0, "trend": 1.884106, "fair_value": 1.099766, "relative_strength": -11.113781, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.609377, "energy": 73.58915, "activity_lines": [ 1.696667, 1.748545, 1.849878, 1.883631 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.7, "volume": 3381300, "typical_volume": 5312165.0, "trend": 1.886095, "fair_value": 1.105403, "relative_strength": -14.403202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.570389, "energy": 69.739775, "activity_lines": [ 1.690667, 1.732182, 1.82757, 1.871754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }