{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbca1573-c8ee-4f92-bed7-9c369f0f950a", "symbol": "688330", "name": "Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.84, "architecture_energy": 77.565, "architecture_maturity": 32.784, "architecture_confidence": 94.161, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 19.06, "deceleration": 39.16, "rotation_down": 59.8, "downward_expansion": 92.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.357334, 33.21563, 35.864955, 38.649278 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.23, "trend_reference": 41.301045, "distance_from_trend": -0.19542, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.910664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.664815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274454, "excess_performance": -0.23125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274454, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5555329, "relative_activity": 0.667166, "balance": 0.716141, "dry_up": 0.608293, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086802, "annualized_volatility": 0.419854, "from_high_reference": -0.443849, "from_low_reference": 0.244103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.301045, "fair_value_reference": 29.910664, "structural_low": 30.709999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.025215, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.012938, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.252274, "worst_return": -0.220232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.090944, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.074724, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.365344, "worst_return": -0.282095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.209269, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.181695, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.565432, "worst_return": -0.301454, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 29.943284, "relative_strength": -14.992165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.718087, "energy": 84.875222, "activity_lines": [ 33.195334, 34.796641, 38.269403, 40.422792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.15, "volume": 5496205, "typical_volume": 10681788.2, "trend": 41.530045, "fair_value": 29.926001, "relative_strength": -16.070538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.136445, "energy": 87.333683, "activity_lines": [ 32.203334, 33.906209, 37.257016, 39.744617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.720001, "volume": 4753460, "typical_volume": 8877933.5, "trend": 41.397712, "fair_value": 29.914054, "relative_strength": -12.440556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.132232, "energy": 84.856014, "activity_lines": [ 32.139334, 33.452005, 36.490295, 39.176227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.23, "volume": 5555329, "typical_volume": 8326750.6, "trend": 41.301045, "fair_value": 29.910664, "relative_strength": -13.664815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.84, "energy": 77.564624, "activity_lines": [ 32.357334, 33.21563, 35.864955, 38.649278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }