{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbcecf99-81b4-407a-9f90-e307839db9b8", "symbol": "XUTD", "name": "Xtrackers II US Treasuries UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.08, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.653, "architecture_energy": 47.875, "architecture_maturity": 2.394, "architecture_confidence": 83.551, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.3, "rotation_up": 11.14, "upward_expansion": 9.49, "deceleration": 40.03, "rotation_down": 58.74, "downward_expansion": 80.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 191.434671, 191.92173, 192.082474, 192.286409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 191.615005, "trend_reference": 192.563099, "distance_from_trend": -0.004924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 184.248576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.132536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006361, "excess_performance": -0.057597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039981, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.066481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3776, "relative_activity": 1.571402, "balance": 3.066481, "dry_up": 0.932604, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007742, "annualized_volatility": 0.041442, "from_high_reference": -0.027725, "from_low_reference": 0.031261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 192.563099, "fair_value_reference": 184.248576, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 191.270004, "volume": 784, "typical_volume": 9276.85, "trend": 192.646618, "fair_value": 184.025116, "relative_strength": -7.479592, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.394499, "energy": 24.312139, "activity_lines": [ 192.156668, 192.338092, 192.298404, 192.481589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.600006, "volume": 1835, "typical_volume": 8235.0, "trend": 192.593674, "fair_value": 184.132056, "relative_strength": -8.62705, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.522924, "energy": 50.036473, "activity_lines": [ 191.517003, 192.035184, 192.138006, 192.349549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.615005, "volume": 3776, "typical_volume": 2402.95, "trend": 192.563099, "fair_value": 184.248576, "relative_strength": -8.132536, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.653393, "energy": 47.874604, "activity_lines": [ 191.434671, 191.92173, 192.082474, 192.286409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }