{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbd79ff3-4920-4e3e-ba2c-3aea3a752882", "symbol": "TELB4", "name": "Telecomunica\u00e7\u00f5es Brasileiras S.A. - Telebras", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.004, "architecture_energy": 78.094, "architecture_maturity": 25.843, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.98, "rotation_up": 23.35, "upward_expansion": 18.61, "deceleration": 39.48, "rotation_down": 62.98, "downward_expansion": 94.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.36, 7.439273, 7.772, 7.986344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.3, "trend_reference": 8.134, "distance_from_trend": -0.102533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.297179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.431448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073604, "excess_performance": -0.016556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214816, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7400, "relative_activity": 1.054131, "balance": 0.186583, "dry_up": 0.858262, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039831, "annualized_volatility": 0.280713, "from_high_reference": -0.391667, "from_low_reference": 0.013889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.134, "fair_value_reference": 9.297179, "structural_low": 7.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.016514, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.028123, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.452005, "worst_return": -0.30198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027431, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.12603, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.413163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111645, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.202273, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.168473, "worst_return": -0.298938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.144901, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.365632, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.069808, "worst_return": -0.513376, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141982, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156446, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.589207, "energy": 62.305586, "activity_lines": [ 7.919333, 8.133091, 8.395286, 8.36557 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.48, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 9770.0, "trend": 8.325, "fair_value": 9.495321, "relative_strength": -16.515013, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.595217, "energy": 76.813357, "activity_lines": [ 7.764, 7.972727, 8.304143, 8.30843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.38, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 8900.0, "trend": 8.267667, "fair_value": 9.461218, "relative_strength": -17.596445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.352019, "energy": 82.305454, "activity_lines": [ 7.610667, 7.821818, 8.205381, 8.247462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.5, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 8655.0, "trend": 8.206667, "fair_value": 9.430128, "relative_strength": -17.448541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.512679, "energy": 81.147045, "activity_lines": [ 7.531333, 7.721091, 8.122905, 8.197935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.36, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 7770.0, "trend": 8.182, "fair_value": 9.393333, "relative_strength": -16.665403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.852557, "energy": 84.602553, "activity_lines": [ 7.444, 7.624727, 8.029286, 8.143312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.36, "volume": 10900, "typical_volume": 7920.0, "trend": 8.161667, "fair_value": 9.360385, "relative_strength": -16.383426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.732041, "energy": 83.331389, "activity_lines": [ 7.398667, 7.548545, 7.941048, 8.09028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.4, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 7750.0, "trend": 8.149333, "fair_value": 9.325641, "relative_strength": -17.300684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.721468, "energy": 75.50566, "activity_lines": [ 7.393333, 7.497455, 7.859619, 8.04114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.3, "volume": 7400, "typical_volume": 7020.0, "trend": 8.134, "fair_value": 9.297179, "relative_strength": -15.431448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.004158, "energy": 78.093677, "activity_lines": [ 7.36, 7.439273, 7.772, 7.986344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }