{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbdbb2eb-8a97-437f-92ca-42949756a5cb", "symbol": "603960", "name": "Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.602, "architecture_energy": 76.319, "architecture_maturity": 26.414, "architecture_confidence": 89.243, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.7, "rotation_up": 11.69, "upward_expansion": 18.03, "deceleration": 38.08, "rotation_down": 71.2, "downward_expansion": 91.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.437333, 16.395636, 18.559877, 19.740228 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.129999, "trend_reference": 20.952848, "distance_from_trend": -0.230176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.046905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.767976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24483, "excess_performance": -0.201626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028746, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 12.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.019298, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.004597, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.561573, "worst_return": -0.246907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011874, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008714, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.492032, "worst_return": -0.284212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110222, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.510271, "worst_return": -0.280299, "sufficient": 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"down", "direction": -84.219668, "energy": 86.158492, "activity_lines": [ 16.499333, 18.245899, 20.041838, 20.868502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.94, "volume": 26504343, "typical_volume": 44060817.45, "trend": 21.203525, "fair_value": 20.065753, "relative_strength": -29.901718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.385038, "energy": 88.3555, "activity_lines": [ 15.294, 17.207052, 19.356198, 20.387951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 33662071, "typical_volume": 41155164.8, "trend": 21.076187, "fair_value": 20.053123, "relative_strength": -19.02056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.54111, "energy": 81.419216, "activity_lines": [ 15.316, 16.730905, 18.941731, 20.059337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.129999, "volume": 26811806, "typical_volume": 40124826.55, "trend": 20.952848, "fair_value": 20.046905, "relative_strength": -20.767976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.601643, "energy": 76.318598, "activity_lines": [ 15.437333, 16.395636, 18.559877, 19.740228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }