{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbdd10a8-e39d-41be-8fda-1b1a8733a248", "symbol": "QCJA", "name": "FT VEST NASDAQ-100 CONSERVATIVE BUFFER ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.059, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.061, "architecture_energy": 42.738, "architecture_maturity": 48.867, "architecture_confidence": 53.886, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.75, "rotation_up": 45.35, "upward_expansion": 76.61, "deceleration": 71.46, "rotation_down": 26.63, "downward_expansion": 5.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.3339, 23.288627, 23.185933, 22.930822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.5661, "trend_reference": 22.626923, "distance_from_trend": 0.041507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.356741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10345, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.256899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067305, "excess_performance": -0.05832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041507, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10345, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.385543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14577, "relative_activity": 0.295557, "balance": 2.385543, "dry_up": 0.354767, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016626, "annualized_volatility": 0.066811, "from_high_reference": -0.074751, "from_low_reference": 0.130269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.626923, "fair_value_reference": 21.356741, "structural_low": 21.225, "invalidation": "A 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"directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013609, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 19.9746, "volume": 983936, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 19.91, "volume": 595094, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 19.94, "volume": 313765, 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"direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.13, "volume": 24537, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.2497, "volume": 18882, "typical_volume": 53085.1, "trend": 22.579387, "fair_value": 21.329124, "relative_strength": -3.414358, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.313041, "energy": 32.274765, "activity_lines": [ 23.223487, 23.228356, 23.117526, 22.867163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.5661, "volume": 14577, "typical_volume": 49320.4, "trend": 22.626923, "fair_value": 21.356741, "relative_strength": -5.256899, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.061205, "energy": 42.738004, "activity_lines": [ 23.3339, 23.288627, 23.185933, 22.930822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }