{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbdf72bb-b7eb-4911-a457-06e09f8d894e", "symbol": "8431", "name": "Superior Plating Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.566, "architecture_energy": 43.691, "architecture_maturity": 43.248, "architecture_confidence": 91.559, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.78, "rotation_up": 23.37, "upward_expansion": 6.37, "deceleration": 55.05, "rotation_down": 48.79, "downward_expansion": 77.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.446666, 48.418181, 51.831904, 54.978494 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.799999, "trend_reference": 58.62, "distance_from_trend": -0.184579, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.368523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.047319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246057, "excess_performance": -0.687429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038149, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169811, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.832983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 866469, "relative_activity": 0.178794, "balance": 0.832983, "dry_up": 0.349833, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135018, "annualized_volatility": 0.617036, "from_high_reference": -0.414933, "from_low_reference": 0.175892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.62, "fair_value_reference": 56.368523, "structural_low": 43.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001805, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026438, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.127778, "worst_return": -0.125261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.048248, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.063023, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165505, "worst_return": -0.153926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028881, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024738, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.154723, "worst_return": -0.145094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 44.799999, "volume": 1982414, "typical_volume": 6913275.4, "trend": 61.651666, "fair_value": 56.750485, "relative_strength": -39.621427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.282331, "energy": 73.16901, "activity_lines": [ 49.219999, 51.337272, 55.609761, 58.336236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.0, "volume": 1974431, "typical_volume": 6343508.0, "trend": 61.115, "fair_value": 56.658112, "relative_strength": -35.019983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.08385, "energy": 67.945288, "activity_lines": [ 48.536666, 50.545454, 54.647619, 57.52 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.900002, "volume": 2095511, "typical_volume": 5781534.35, "trend": 60.448333, "fair_value": 56.544647, "relative_strength": -37.922181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.683621, "energy": 71.451995, "activity_lines": [ 47.393333, 49.362727, 53.476905, 56.538387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.049999, "volume": 1845027, "typical_volume": 5179900.6, "trend": 59.58, "fair_value": 56.453246, "relative_strength": -36.015454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.216046, "energy": 55.943661, "activity_lines": [ 47.32, 48.841818, 52.61619, 55.738494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 47.799999, "volume": 866469, "typical_volume": 4846196.45, "trend": 58.62, "fair_value": 56.368523, "relative_strength": -38.047319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.565639, "energy": 43.69121, "activity_lines": [ 47.446666, 48.418181, 51.831904, 54.978494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }