{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbec71d1-1859-407d-8e88-faf9c90aab84", "symbol": "AEIN", "name": "Allgeier SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 79.239, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.608, "architecture_energy": 15.295, "architecture_maturity": 15.079, "architecture_confidence": 58.027, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.44, "rotation_up": 41.49, "upward_expansion": 35.41, "deceleration": 40.64, "rotation_down": 14.8, "downward_expansion": 41.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.44, 16.046136, 15.819955, 16.113474 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.75, "trend_reference": 16.954583, "distance_from_trend": -0.012067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.721937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.983196, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.149746, "excess_performance": -0.214386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109309, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.763908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38339, "relative_activity": 0.847375, "balance": 6.763908, "dry_up": 0.923511, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069317, "annualized_volatility": 0.491495, "from_high_reference": -0.307851, "from_low_reference": 0.249417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.954583, "fair_value_reference": 17.721937, "structural_low": 13.40625, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.02732, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.216931, "worst_return": -0.103825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025688, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.035101, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.00216, "worst_return": -0.146102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098592, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.181042, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.955696, "worst_return": -0.250077, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059155, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.502917, 15.349375, 15.661146, 16.353797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.6, "volume": 46599, "typical_volume": 49856.2, "trend": 17.42125, "fair_value": 17.831431, "relative_strength": -8.607519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.802906, "energy": 18.457198, "activity_lines": [ 15.965625, 15.60483, 15.709539, 16.292856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.7, "volume": 32683, "typical_volume": 47472.6, "trend": 17.279583, "fair_value": 17.785098, "relative_strength": -14.074997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.699234, "energy": 20.863978, "activity_lines": [ 15.996667, 15.654773, 15.675551, 16.181808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.6, "volume": 49514, "typical_volume": 46918.85, "trend": 17.129583, "fair_value": 17.753644, "relative_strength": -10.724218, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.786204, "energy": 14.170795, "activity_lines": [ 16.246667, 15.843693, 15.738467, 16.137964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.75, "volume": 38339, "typical_volume": 45244.45, "trend": 16.954583, "fair_value": 17.721937, "relative_strength": -11.983196, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.607585, "energy": 15.294644, "activity_lines": [ 16.44, 16.046136, 15.819955, 16.113474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }