{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbee43f7-ed36-46e8-a067-1dea5c7b137f", "symbol": "BRIGHT", "name": "BrightBid Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.417, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.232, "architecture_energy": 58.15, "architecture_maturity": 21.86, "architecture_confidence": 93.226, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.47, "rotation_up": 15.12, "upward_expansion": 12.02, "deceleration": 40.55, "rotation_down": 67.23, "downward_expansion": 90.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.403533, 0.414873, 0.453976, 0.467128 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.399, "trend_reference": 0.46845, "distance_from_trend": -0.148255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.11414, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.903017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.593747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0025, "excess_performance": -0.063994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148255, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.903017, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.209838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92501, "relative_activity": 0.31926, "balance": 0.209838, "dry_up": 0.449498, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142664, "annualized_volatility": 0.894724, "from_high_reference": -0.637273, "from_low_reference": 0.995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.46845, "fair_value_reference": 4.11414, "structural_low": 0.241, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043993, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095762, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.69382, "worst_return": -0.145604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.142087, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.151544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445954, "worst_return": -0.224215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.213401, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.085202, "worst_return": -0.516484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"blue", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148352, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.321543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.276336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.953355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.946429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036232, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.36, "volume": 126119, "typical_volume": 590099.25, "trend": 15.182262, "fair_value": 14.445102, "relative_strength": 22.352479, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.811397, 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"close": 0.41, "volume": 184046, "typical_volume": 355699.35, "trend": 0.45955, "fair_value": 4.317223, "relative_strength": -3.868888, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.715542, "energy": 54.333521, "activity_lines": [ 0.413333, 0.432691, 0.471081, 0.475177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4, "volume": 112088, "typical_volume": 318454.55, "trend": 0.464217, "fair_value": 4.214787, "relative_strength": -6.992572, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.141261, "energy": 52.614538, "activity_lines": [ 0.406933, 0.422782, 0.462357, 0.471335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.399, "volume": 92501, "typical_volume": 289735.8, "trend": 0.46845, "fair_value": 4.11414, "relative_strength": -8.593747, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.232096, "energy": 58.149572, "activity_lines": [ 0.403533, 0.414873, 0.453976, 0.467128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }