{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbf1317f-2798-40ab-b94b-f49934a6bd18", "symbol": "ISBA", "name": "Isabella Bank Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.367, "architecture_energy": 37.875, "architecture_maturity": 34.022, "architecture_confidence": 89.288, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 21.14, "upward_expansion": 4.52, "deceleration": 50.89, "rotation_down": 48.96, "downward_expansion": 75.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.046667, 39.454053, 40.453611, 41.769004 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.77, "trend_reference": 43.833584, "distance_from_trend": -0.092705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.190417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.401058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.175656, "excess_performance": -0.363109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.180725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 293483, "relative_activity": 1.132965, "balance": 2.180725, "dry_up": 1.279904, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082606, "annualized_volatility": 0.340128, "from_high_reference": -0.319842, "from_low_reference": 0.373588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.833584, "fair_value_reference": 28.190417, "structural_low": 35.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002567, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.007064, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.085577, "worst_return": -0.085119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01389, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.018149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.18791, "worst_return": -0.075086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.052994, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.113235, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.364479, "worst_return": -0.067584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.220732, "energy": 45.38862, "activity_lines": [ 39.729722, 40.32114, 41.436708, 42.880827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.81, "volume": 316800, "typical_volume": 234508.75, "trend": 44.460842, "fair_value": 27.921554, "relative_strength": -19.215894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.382801, "energy": 59.301833, "activity_lines": [ 38.698, 39.610636, 40.888702, 42.35603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.71, "volume": 403737, "typical_volume": 249467.2, "trend": 44.118052, "fair_value": 28.057212, "relative_strength": -13.328898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.627838, "energy": 49.046315, "activity_lines": [ 38.847667, 39.499327, 40.658652, 42.049524 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.77, "volume": 293483, "typical_volume": 259039.75, "trend": 43.833584, "fair_value": 28.190417, "relative_strength": -17.401058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.366686, "energy": 37.875481, "activity_lines": [ 39.046667, 39.454053, 40.453611, 41.769004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }