{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bbf52241-5fe2-4c24-90e4-a17ab76b6114",
    "symbol": "ARPL",
    "name": "Arla Plast AB",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -42.618,
    "architecture_energy": 28.129,
    "architecture_maturity": 80.515,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.883,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.85,
        "rotation_up": 27.37,
        "upward_expansion": 16.27,
        "deceleration": 46.77,
        "rotation_down": 33.74,
        "downward_expansion": 66.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.393332,
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        39.89261,
        40.985598
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 40.099998,
    "trend_reference": 42.414915,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.054578,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 43.730637,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083023,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -24.279055,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.090617,
    "excess_performance": -0.152111,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054578,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05559,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083023,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072444,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.242791,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028721,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090617,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.434223,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 25702,
      "relative_activity": 0.599874,
      "balance": 0.434223,
      "dry_up": 1.041827,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.047382,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.247306,
      "from_high_reference": -0.359235,
      "from_low_reference": 0.077957
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 42.414915,
      "fair_value_reference": 43.730637,
      "structural_low": 37.200001,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.473684,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.473684,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011072,
        "regime_survival": 0.736842,
        "best_return": 0.08502,
        "worst_return": -0.0625,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.01497,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001189,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
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        "worst_return": -0.184524,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.011154,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.192745,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.054464,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 74696.9,
        "trend": 47.638885,
        "fair_value": 42.883312,
        "relative_strength": -15.934065,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 70376.8,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 69308.9,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 68908.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 64218.35,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 6701,
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        "energy": 77.152917,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -27.707395,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -71.985453,
        "energy": 75.79348,
        "activity_lines": [
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          42.688825
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 50363.6,
        "trend": 43.627241,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 37.799999,
        "volume": 143365,
        "typical_volume": 51573.25,
        "trend": 43.388497,
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        "relative_strength": -28.045149,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -73.398893,
        "energy": 77.689919,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 38.049999,
        "volume": 109110,
        "typical_volume": 53972.05,
        "trend": 43.167714,
        "fair_value": 43.544733,
        "relative_strength": -26.291585,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.472456,
        "energy": 55.821733,
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          38.169999,
          38.678181,
          40.460929,
          41.626479
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 38.5,
        "volume": 15807,
        "typical_volume": 51242.8,
        "trend": 42.933047,
        "fair_value": 43.596822,
        "relative_strength": -26.09322,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.219577,
        "energy": 49.289469,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.233333,
          38.533636,
          40.13852,
          41.325336
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 40.25,
        "volume": 27932,
        "typical_volume": 44203.7,
        "trend": 42.6829,
        "fair_value": 43.658964,
        "relative_strength": -23.191284,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.094203,
        "energy": 38.956462,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.903333,
          38.761818,
          40.01401,
          41.152237
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 40.099998,
        "volume": 25702,
        "typical_volume": 42845.65,
        "trend": 42.414915,
        "fair_value": 43.730637,
        "relative_strength": -24.279055,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.618335,
        "energy": 28.128632,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.393332,
          38.977272,
          39.89261,
          40.985598
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}