{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbf61b4f-41c4-4961-b84a-7b4fb80b3b4c", "symbol": "BACTI-B", "name": "Bactiguard Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.111, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.058, "architecture_energy": 18.49, "architecture_maturity": 28.626, "architecture_confidence": 84.16, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.42, "rotation_up": 21.69, "upward_expansion": 9.54, "deceleration": 53.44, "rotation_down": 43.26, "downward_expansion": 68.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.023333, 16.017273, 16.251191, 16.371613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.8, "trend_reference": 16.483333, "distance_from_trend": -0.041456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.395513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.618316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.89582, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036585, "excess_performance": -0.09808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.618316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036585, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.193346, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19134, "relative_activity": 0.907481, "balance": 0.193346, "dry_up": 0.705949, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101266, "annualized_volatility": 0.373057, "from_high_reference": -0.544669, "from_low_reference": 0.161765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.483333, "fair_value_reference": 41.395513, "structural_low": 14.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.057886, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.040663, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.162857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.163812, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.141327, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.166129, "worst_return": -0.372587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.343634, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.168935, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.112903, "worst_return": -0.527143, "sufficient": true 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063218, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.430341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", 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21.390523, "activity_lines": [ 16.096667, 16.098182, 16.485, 16.560645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.5, "volume": 23638, "typical_volume": 25616.6, "trend": 16.736667, "fair_value": 42.485256, "relative_strength": -25.101357, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.410798, "energy": 26.982147, "activity_lines": [ 15.903334, 15.951818, 16.377619, 16.474516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.85, "volume": 13858, "typical_volume": 22200.85, "trend": 16.618333, "fair_value": 42.109936, "relative_strength": -23.154551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.634863, "energy": 24.760603, "activity_lines": [ 15.85, 15.918182, 16.312619, 16.417312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.65, "volume": 2909, "typical_volume": 21068.25, "trend": 16.54, "fair_value": 41.748077, "relative_strength": -18.777475, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.739544, "energy": 15.09257, "activity_lines": [ 16.103333, 16.050909, 16.323095, 16.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.8, "volume": 19134, "typical_volume": 21084.75, "trend": 16.483333, "fair_value": 41.395513, "relative_strength": -22.89582, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.05838, "energy": 18.489653, "activity_lines": [ 16.023333, 16.017273, 16.251191, 16.371613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }