{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbf9017c-a304-46ae-8af4-a45d9a16bd03", "symbol": "DIS", "name": "The Walt Disney Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.493, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.937, "architecture_energy": 8.84, "architecture_maturity": 18.541, "architecture_confidence": 47.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.26, "rotation_up": 22.3, "upward_expansion": 13.92, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 36.14, "downward_expansion": 63.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.330666, 86.190866, 86.647096, 86.854171 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 90.589996, "trend_reference": 87.864131, "distance_from_trend": 0.031024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.192612, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.576556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006362, "excess_performance": -0.180609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031024, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006362, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2944, "relative_activity": 2.502337, "balance": 0.805234, "dry_up": 1.39864, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036795, "annualized_volatility": 0.23713, "from_high_reference": -0.104707, "from_low_reference": 0.13082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.864131, "fair_value_reference": 91.192612, "structural_low": 80.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.018962, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": 0.007898, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.261902, "worst_return": -0.128622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01771, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.314481, "worst_return": -0.213786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006881, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.028215, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.332534, "worst_return": -0.218769, "sufficient": 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84.43, "volume": 895, "typical_volume": 1132.65, "trend": 88.532131, "fair_value": 91.079574, "relative_strength": -24.157797, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.051887, "energy": 49.956077, "activity_lines": [ 85.141999, 85.918521, 86.553467, 87.037199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.230003, "volume": 1043, "typical_volume": 1085.7, "trend": 88.124798, "fair_value": 91.123653, "relative_strength": -24.453518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.349518, "energy": 56.459547, "activity_lines": [ 84.404, 85.338399, 86.239448, 86.695126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.589996, "volume": 2944, "typical_volume": 1176.5, "trend": 87.864131, "fair_value": 91.192612, "relative_strength": -19.576556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.936769, "energy": 8.839612, "activity_lines": [ 86.330666, 86.190866, 86.647096, 86.854171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }