{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbfb6d92-0c22-430d-88aa-5d9db0156445", "symbol": "4081", "name": "Nayifat Finance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.431, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.652, "architecture_energy": 45.945, "architecture_maturity": 79.495, "architecture_confidence": 85.331, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.62, "rotation_up": 21.65, "upward_expansion": 8.72, "deceleration": 56.28, "rotation_down": 57.9, "downward_expansion": 79.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.663333, 9.727636, 9.810667, 9.985699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.08, "trend_reference": 10.392333, "distance_from_trend": -0.030054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.625153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201594, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.327257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.152941, "excess_performance": -0.121112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.915605, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1660414, "relative_activity": 2.24941, "balance": 1.915605, "dry_up": 0.876956, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02732, "annualized_volatility": 0.2022, "from_high_reference": -0.265841, "from_low_reference": 0.092091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.392333, "fair_value_reference": 12.625153, "structural_low": 9.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001986, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.002373, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.189441, "worst_return": -0.090334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003273, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221875, "worst_return": -0.153061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07241, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.021236, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.179687, "worst_return": -0.168367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-14.630333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.576282, "energy": 53.501328, "activity_lines": [ 9.882667, 9.893273, 9.942143, 10.238753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.61, "volume": 344741, "typical_volume": 835353.7, "trend": 10.637667, "fair_value": 12.741303, "relative_strength": -14.955862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.266218, "energy": 60.037522, "activity_lines": [ 9.784, 9.840909, 9.898524, 10.167011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.41, "volume": 322052, "typical_volume": 820768.5, "trend": 10.544333, "fair_value": 12.700114, "relative_strength": -16.819586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.526231, "energy": 72.787356, "activity_lines": [ 9.641333, 9.759818, 9.844095, 10.087806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.33, "volume": 262112, "typical_volume": 691119.4, "trend": 10.448333, "fair_value": 12.659988, "relative_strength": -15.40392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.600594, "energy": 89.279127, "activity_lines": [ 9.508667, 9.670727, 9.789952, 10.009462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.08, "volume": 1660414, "typical_volume": 738155.4, "trend": 10.392333, "fair_value": 12.625153, "relative_strength": -10.327257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.651643, "energy": 45.944941, "activity_lines": [ 9.663333, 9.727636, 9.810667, 9.985699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }