{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bbfe1246-8883-4150-8d31-bba3b5dd0541", "symbol": "EQ", "name": "Equillium Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.301, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.69, "architecture_energy": 17.786, "architecture_maturity": 56.707, "architecture_confidence": 90.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.36, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 46.7, "deceleration": 93.47, "rotation_down": 41.66, "downward_expansion": 26.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.327333, 2.561273, 2.551048, 2.414989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.11, "trend_reference": 2.177, "distance_from_trend": -0.030776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.214641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.737139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.320477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.388158, "excess_performance": 0.200704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.313958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.737139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023205, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.384271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.388158, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.122127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2159388, "relative_activity": 0.671308, "balance": 1.122127, "dry_up": 0.773992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.274597, "annualized_volatility": 0.772457, "from_high_reference": -0.403955, "from_low_reference": 1.790267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.177, "fair_value_reference": 1.214641, "structural_low": 1.49, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031056, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.120553, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.542949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.212329, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.242343, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.782609, "worst_return": -0.459627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052986, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40411, "worst_return": -0.298137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.364407, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.280943, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.462841, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.482255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.526316, "active": false 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.987602, "energy": 30.336784, "activity_lines": [ 2.831333, 2.840545, 2.595, 2.386366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 1968798, "typical_volume": 3447766.7, "trend": 2.122333, "fair_value": 1.197338, "relative_strength": 31.099322, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.392705, "energy": 20.570609, "activity_lines": [ 2.694, 2.791455, 2.603476, 2.412215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2, "volume": 2752440, "typical_volume": 3246497.95, "trend": 2.144667, "fair_value": 1.206338, "relative_strength": 13.692393, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.237768, "energy": 15.946602, "activity_lines": [ 2.497333, 2.684, 2.580905, 2.417226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.11, "volume": 2159388, "typical_volume": 3216687.7, "trend": 2.177, "fair_value": 1.214641, "relative_strength": 2.320477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.690143, "energy": 17.786272, "activity_lines": [ 2.327333, 2.561273, 2.551048, 2.414989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }