{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc0b9564-ac5d-492a-a864-be6b36f8213f", "symbol": "BCO", "name": "Brinks Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 91.703, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.39, "architecture_energy": 46.226, "architecture_maturity": 8.686, "architecture_confidence": 68.449, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.35, "rotation_up": 66.84, "upward_expansion": 46.11, "deceleration": 27.34, "rotation_down": 14.1, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.246487, 110.996266, 107.886742, 108.320325 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 112.19, "trend_reference": 111.236599, "distance_from_trend": 0.008571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.713645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160022, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.289903, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.140917, "excess_performance": -0.266542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002832, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140917, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2937217, "relative_activity": 1.223906, "balance": 0.805606, "dry_up": 1.274944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071544, "annualized_volatility": 0.38869, "from_high_reference": -0.175313, "from_low_reference": 0.234844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.236599, "fair_value_reference": 96.713645, "structural_low": 90.853581, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016027, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.183483, "worst_return": -0.059516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02899, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198084, "worst_return": -0.2019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073436, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352903, "worst_return": -0.176391, "sufficient": false 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107.191075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.736813, "volume": 2838201, "typical_volume": 2360998.75, "trend": 111.625932, "fair_value": 96.138749, "relative_strength": 0.728245, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.892841, "energy": 41.132382, "activity_lines": [ 113.108134, 107.498116, 106.023109, 107.849052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.45, "volume": 3586652, "typical_volume": 2417380.1, "trend": 111.709332, "fair_value": 96.443051, "relative_strength": -3.292269, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.158347, "energy": 42.544867, "activity_lines": [ 116.53941, 109.940827, 107.280733, 108.289315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.19, "volume": 2937217, "typical_volume": 2399871.05, "trend": 111.236599, "fair_value": 96.713645, "relative_strength": -11.289903, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.390439, "energy": 46.225748, "activity_lines": [ 116.246487, 110.996266, 107.886742, 108.320325 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }