{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc10372e-0c08-41fa-a90e-00319fe0b0cf", "symbol": "HYMC", "name": "Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.726, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.345, "architecture_energy": 49.393, "architecture_maturity": 32.524, "architecture_confidence": 86.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.52, "rotation_up": 23.82, "upward_expansion": 7.53, "deceleration": 51.39, "rotation_down": 56.5, "downward_expansion": 83.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.064, 22.429091, 26.442714, 29.387656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.54, "trend_reference": 33.022667, "distance_from_trend": -0.19631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.627404, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.756714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.109205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232726, "excess_performance": -0.42018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.756714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.173724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001092, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.848944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8980028, "relative_activity": 0.8632, "balance": 0.33829, "dry_up": 0.771766, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199913, "annualized_volatility": 0.948862, "from_high_reference": -0.548101, "from_low_reference": 6.946108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.022667, "fair_value_reference": 9.627404, "structural_low": 18.018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.028826, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.063569, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 2.859348, "worst_return": -0.589157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.079715, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.097641, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 3.01487, "worst_return": -0.646053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.231481, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.402871, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.026022, "worst_return": -0.812544, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.418301, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.353503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 5.593407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", 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23.358667, 25.909091, 30.393667, 32.455269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.05, "volume": 8890362, "typical_volume": 12804785.25, "trend": 33.364333, "fair_value": 9.284981, "relative_strength": -22.179949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.051915, "energy": 79.884731, "activity_lines": [ 21.674667, 24.156182, 29.010333, 31.537419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.22, "volume": 6932946, "typical_volume": 11915012.45, "trend": 33.204667, "fair_value": 9.385897, "relative_strength": -17.111228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.387994, "energy": 77.473235, "activity_lines": [ 20.828, 22.968545, 27.887571, 30.689398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.53, "volume": 7311956, "typical_volume": 11442517.6, "trend": 33.042333, "fair_value": 9.483526, "relative_strength": -21.315266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.668132, "energy": 76.87187, "activity_lines": [ 20.137333, 21.945273, 26.787524, 29.807161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.54, "volume": 8980028, "typical_volume": 10403189.45, "trend": 33.022667, "fair_value": 9.627404, "relative_strength": 0.109205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.345488, "energy": 49.392839, "activity_lines": [ 22.064, 22.429091, 26.442714, 29.387656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }