{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bc11be76-ba22-47db-ac2e-884f7ea78d78",
    "symbol": "ESG",
    "name": "FLEXSHARES STOXX US ESG SELECT INDEX FUND",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 88.11,
    "architecture_energy": 70.448,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.388,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.621,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.13,
        "rotation_up": 59.99,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 63.28,
        "rotation_down": 27.51,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        177.730727,
        176.519605,
        173.837663,
        169.994509
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 182.0818,
    "trend_reference": 165.721742,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.09872,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 137.53285,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323915,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.178112,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.127563,
    "excess_performance": 0.001938,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09872,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040458,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.323915,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038288,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011781,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02665,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.127563,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.79611,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1838,
      "relative_activity": 0.389836,
      "balance": 1.79611,
      "dry_up": 0.647164,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018428,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.121154,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.240966
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 165.721742,
      "fair_value_reference": 137.53285,
      "structural_low": 147.847639,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 43,
        "median_return": 0.013976,
        "positive_rate": 0.674419,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.674419,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000476,
        "regime_survival": 0.813953,
        "best_return": 0.068056,
        "worst_return": -0.117805,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.026199,
        "positive_rate": 0.733333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.733333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001901,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.118477,
        "worst_return": -0.043803,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.098608,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": -8e-06,
        "regime_survival": 0.888889,
        "best_return": 0.143775,
        "worst_return": -0.182871,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.166283,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022239,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.248704,
        "worst_return": -0.119576,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "end": "2024-08-09",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.12201,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
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        "return": 0.01778,
        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "trend": 161.974133,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": 1.178086,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 5678.65,
        "trend": 163.275957,
        "fair_value": 135.726753,
        "relative_strength": 0.780583,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2289,
        "typical_volume": 5290.85,
        "trend": 163.846546,
        "fair_value": 136.160716,
        "relative_strength": 0.804441,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 5203.35,
        "trend": 164.362089,
        "fair_value": 136.590243,
        "relative_strength": 1.697697,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 60.908201,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 176.3604,
        "volume": 2312,
        "typical_volume": 5195.55,
        "trend": 164.987172,
        "fair_value": 137.042731,
        "relative_strength": 1.458609,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.419089,
        "energy": 60.84959,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.559,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 182.0818,
        "volume": 1838,
        "typical_volume": 4714.8,
        "trend": 165.721742,
        "fair_value": 137.53285,
        "relative_strength": 1.178112,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.109903,
        "energy": 70.447661,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}