{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc143c2a-d1e6-4876-868d-b99255c2421e", "symbol": "MGA", "name": "MetalsGrove Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.613, "architecture_energy": 24.549, "architecture_maturity": 19.431, "architecture_confidence": 64.217, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.51, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 18.98, "deceleration": 51.38, "rotation_down": 38.36, "downward_expansion": 64.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.095733, 0.095436, 0.097205, 0.100217 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.095, "trend_reference": 0.1023, "distance_from_trend": -0.071359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.07199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.863072, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055556, "excess_performance": -0.00815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028631, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141947, "relative_activity": 0.753048, "balance": 0.934758, "dry_up": 0.282953, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072065, "annualized_volatility": 0.662601, "from_high_reference": -0.366667, "from_low_reference": 0.759259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1023, "fair_value_reference": 0.07199, "structural_low": 0.088, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009389, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.617647, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023465, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038678, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.340909, "worst_return": -0.402985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.101859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035088, "worst_return": -0.238806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.091, "volume": 15151, "typical_volume": 522834.9, "trend": 0.0995, "fair_value": 0.072619, "relative_strength": 9.53706, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.07275, "energy": 61.002192, "activity_lines": [ 0.091733, 0.095309, 0.100914, 0.101755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.092, "volume": 5500, "typical_volume": 301652.0, "trend": 0.099867, "fair_value": 0.072375, "relative_strength": 8.825817, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.609281, "energy": 63.097447, "activity_lines": [ 0.090867, 0.094218, 0.09951, 0.101271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.105, "volume": 396698, "typical_volume": 284358.95, "trend": 0.100967, "fair_value": 0.072311, "relative_strength": 23.376416, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.774709, "energy": 25.864356, "activity_lines": [ 0.095533, 0.095818, 0.099476, 0.101602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.105, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 263570.65, "trend": 0.1015, "fair_value": 0.072279, "relative_strength": 22.21475, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.690222, "energy": 10.227033, "activity_lines": [ 0.099467, 0.097309, 0.099562, 0.101862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.094, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 227116.05, "trend": 0.101867, "fair_value": 0.072208, "relative_strength": 8.877814, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.045069, "energy": 24.407703, "activity_lines": [ 0.098667, 0.096691, 0.098719, 0.101378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.091, "volume": 70196, "typical_volume": 193921.6, "trend": 0.102133, "fair_value": 0.072087, "relative_strength": 2.359692, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.161978, "energy": 28.447597, "activity_lines": [ 0.096533, 0.095618, 0.097714, 0.100677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.095, "volume": 141947, "typical_volume": 188496.7, "trend": 0.1023, "fair_value": 0.07199, "relative_strength": 2.863072, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.612724, "energy": 24.548553, "activity_lines": [ 0.095733, 0.095436, 0.097205, 0.100217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }