{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bc1ad0a8-6ffe-4546-be42-06f7eed5211e", "symbol": "VNV", "name": "VNV Global AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.848, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.574, "architecture_energy": 17.518, "architecture_maturity": 28.665, "architecture_confidence": 46.454, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.08, "rotation_up": 41.7, "upward_expansion": 26.71, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 16.66, "downward_expansion": 49.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.837333, 17.365454, 17.475904, 17.678752 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.42, "trend_reference": 18.041333, "distance_from_trend": 0.020989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.010385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079478, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.201081, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006008, "excess_performance": -0.055487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006008, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.443409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 570345, "relative_activity": 0.837483, "balance": 3.443409, "dry_up": 0.988629, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054957, "annualized_volatility": 0.271199, "from_high_reference": -0.309595, "from_low_reference": 0.15125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.041333, "fair_value_reference": 20.010385, "structural_low": 16.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.088641, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022236, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.164076, "worst_return": -0.213033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.108414, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.554404, "worst_return": -0.383041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413932, "worst_return": -0.296157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.026969, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.152357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096718, "worst_return": -0.185472, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.245826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.206136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050551, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093664, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.233529, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.321957, "energy": 69.684064, "activity_lines": [ 16.554666, 16.987636, 17.461524, 17.827269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.639999, "volume": 615943, "typical_volume": 767420.95, "trend": 18.364, "fair_value": 20.101282, "relative_strength": -24.600951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.68645, "energy": 56.465459, "activity_lines": [ 16.562666, 16.865454, 17.349238, 17.705806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.639999, "volume": 835797, "typical_volume": 751054.2, "trend": 18.234667, "fair_value": 20.053077, "relative_strength": -20.840163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.800561, "energy": 33.367344, "activity_lines": [ 16.923999, 16.951272, 17.345143, 17.659097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.24, "volume": 671031, "typical_volume": 725094.65, "trend": 18.120667, "fair_value": 20.022308, "relative_strength": -18.880565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.382793, "energy": 11.811962, "activity_lines": [ 17.413333, 17.142909, 17.402428, 17.659441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.42, "volume": 570345, "typical_volume": 681022.9, "trend": 18.041333, "fair_value": 20.010385, "relative_strength": -19.201081, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.574227, "energy": 17.517537, "activity_lines": [ 17.837333, 17.365454, 17.475904, 17.678752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }